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Oct. 28 (Today) is the Best Trading Day of the Year: But 2026 Has a Catch
Based on more than 50 years of stock trading in the U.S., one day has to be the best day for investors. That day happens to be today, Oct. 28, with an average daily gain of 0.50% dating back to 1950.
This year’s best day could be spoiled by a major event.
Best Trading Day of the Year
For many years, Oct. 28 has been known as the historical best trading day for the S&P 500, which is tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY).
Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick, who is well-known on social media for his charts and historical trading patterns, highlighted the day earlier this week and why 2026 is different.
"Something has to give, as October 28th is historically the best day of the year. This day falls on this Wednesday and that is also a Fed meeting. Under Kevin Warsh we’ve seen the S&P 500 fall 1.21% in June, 1.52% in July and 0.45% in September. Which history will repeat?" Detrick tweeted.
Those declines refer to the dates of the Federal Reserve meetings, led by Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh in those respective months.
"In other words, when Warsh talks, the market hasn’t liked it, but tomorrow is usually a good day. Time to buckle up!" Detrick said in a blog post.
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday. A decision to cut or raise rates could create high volatility for a market that has not priced in either of those outcomes. Even without a rate change, the markets could trade uneasily on Wednesday.
While there is no guarantee that Oct. 28 will be the best trading day each year, or have a positive return each year, the 2026 calendar could come with an asterisk due to it also being a Fed day.
A chart shared by Detrick shows that Oct. 28, which is also the market expert’s birthday, is the best date based on average returns since 1950.
The date beats out Dec. 26 and April 9, which have average gains of 0.48% and 0.44%, respectively.
On the other side of the spectrum is Oct. 19, which is the worst day of the year, with an average decline of 0.52% since 1950. This year, Oct. 19 saw a modest 0.4% gain for the S&P 500.
Fighting Against History
The 2026 market may go down as one of the most unusual, with new highs set despite macroeconomic uncertainties and periods of war.
The S&P 500 has also fought against historical norms, such as September being the worst month for the index. This year saw a modest gain for September.
Detrick said investors are heading into the bullish late October period. This comes as a four-year bull market continues on, despite concerns for AI bubbles and other potential negative sentiment.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is up 12.7% year-to-date in 2026 and on pace for a fifth straight year of double-digit returns for investors.
Photos: Ryan Detrick, Courtesy Ryan Detrick; Graph via Shutterstock