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    Is BHP Group (ASX:BHP) Fully Valued Following Its Chile Copper Exploration Deal?

    Simply Wall St·10/28/2026 08:14:15
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    BHP Group (ASX:BHP) just expanded its copper ambitions, signing an exploration agreement with Codelco for Chile's Anillo Project, as management promoted its project pipeline and production guidance at IMARC 2026 in Sydney.

    Recent price action reflects that story. At A$58.04, BHP Group has delivered a 26.84% year to date share price return. Its 1 year total shareholder return of 37.69% and 5 year total shareholder return of 145.29% point to momentum that long term holders have already experienced.

    Scan beyond BHP Group and see which other miners are trying to ride similar copper and electrification trends with the 16 top copper producer stocks.

    BHP Group now trades only slightly below analyst targets after a strong copper driven run. Is that a genuine discount, or is the market quietly pricing in project and commodity risk already?

    Most Popular Narrative: 21% Overvalued

    BHP Group last closed at A$58.04, while the most followed narrative on the stock anchors fair value closer to A$47.93. That gap puts a spotlight on whether the recent copper enthusiasm has pulled the share price ahead of the earnings base that underpins it.

    At A$47.93 per share, BHP Group (ASX: BHP) appears reasonably valued based on its current operating performance. For the six months to 31 December 2025, BHP reported revenue of US$27.9 billion, underlying EBITDA of US$15.5 billion and underlying attributable profit of US$6.2 billion, with an underlying EBITDA margin of 58.4%. Underlying earnings were US$1.222 per share for the half; annualising this figure and converting it at an AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.6949 implies approximately A$3.52 per share and a price-to-earnings multiple of around 13.6 times. This annualised figure assumes that the conditions experienced during the first half continue and should therefore be treated cautiously for a commodity producer.

    See why 13 investors see BHP Group as 21% overvalued.

    According to Jamesiskindacool, the current assessment leans heavily on what BHP Group already earns from its present portfolio and current commodity conditions, rather than any blue-sky upside from new copper projects or Jansen potash. That means investors who are excited by the Anillo agreement and broader electrification themes are effectively paying a price that this narrative views as about 21.1% above its fair value anchor of A$47.93.

    Put simply, the story argues that A$58.04 bakes in more than just stable operations. It assumes the business can manage commodity swings, execute growth projects and handle capital needs in a way that sustains or improves on recent profitability.

    Result: Fair Value of A$47.93 (OVERVALUED)

    Still, any sharp move in copper prices or a change in guidance for BHP Group’s major segments could quickly challenge the argument that the stock is 21% overvalued.

    Find out about the key risks to this BHP Group narrative.

    Next Steps

    If that mix of optimism and concern feels familiar, move quickly from headlines to hard numbers and weigh BHP Group on your own terms with the 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond BHP Group?

    Do not stop your research with BHP Group. Broaden your watchlist now so you are not playing catch up when the next opportunity gains attention.