Why Everyone Is Watching Nordex (XTRA:NDX1) Again

Nordex (XTRA:NDX1) just opened a new chapter in its onshore wind story as Mercury in New Zealand ordered 40 turbines for the 192 MW Puke Kapo Hau project.

Nordex’s entry into New Zealand comes at a time when short-term momentum has cooled slightly. The company has reported a 30-day share price return of 5.48% and a 90-day share price move down 1.78%. However, the year-to-date share price gain of 24.26% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 38.44% indicate that investors are still rewarding its longer track record. This includes a very large 3-year total shareholder return of 278.80% and a 5-year total shareholder return of 164.94%, based on a latest share price of €37.6.

Scan beyond Nordex and this New Zealand contract by reviewing other wind and renewable players on our hand picked 42 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks shaping future grid and generation projects.

Nordex now trades at €37.6 while analyst targets cluster higher and some intrinsic value models point to a larger gap. Is the recent New Zealand contract enough to justify where fair value sits on that spectrum?

Most Popular Narrative: 26% Undervalued

Nordex is priced at €37.6 while the most followed narrative sees fair value closer to €50.52. The gap between price and that outlook is material and comes down to how durable current execution really is.

Execution on large and growing backlogs, combined with improved project delivery and stable pricing, is already driving better-than-expected EBITDA (+64% YoY in Q2) and positive net income. Management is guiding for ongoing EBITDA margin expansion toward 8%, which would set up higher net profits and free cash flow. A stable supply chain environment, further investments in manufacturing and digitalization, and lack of major near-term competitive threats in Europe indicate that Nordex may be well positioned to convert order backlog into revenue and continued margin improvement through operational leverage.

See why 17 investors see Nordex as 26% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of €50.52 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, Nordex leans heavily on Europe for demand and faces ongoing warranty and legacy cost outflows. These could pressure cash generation if conditions turn less supportive.

Find out about the key risks to this Nordex narrative.

Next Steps

Curious whether the optimism around Nordex really stacks up against the numbers you care about most? Then move quickly and weigh the upside yourself by checking the 4 key rewards

Looking for more investment ideas beyond Nordex?

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