Earnings Miss: NOTE AB (publ) Missed EPS By 17% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

It's shaping up to be a tough period for NOTE AB (publ) (STO:NOTE), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. NOTE missed earnings this time around, with kr1.1b revenue coming in 6.0% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of kr1.98 also fell short of expectations by 17%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from NOTE's twin analysts is for revenues of kr5.22b in 2027. This would reflect a major 24% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 48% to kr13.02. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr5.30b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr13.64 in 2027. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for NOTE

The consensus price target held steady at kr196, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting NOTE's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 19% annualised growth to the end of 2027 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.0% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect NOTE to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for NOTE. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at kr196, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on NOTE. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have analyst estimates for NOTE going out as far as 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that NOTE is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

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