Results: Eni S.p.A. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

As you might know, Eni S.p.A. (BIT:ENI) recently reported its quarterly numbers. Revenues missed the mark, coming in 18% below forecasts, at €28b. Statutory profits were a real bright spot in contrast, with per-share profits of €1.07 being a notable 31% above what the analysts were modelling. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from 20 analysts covering Eni is for revenues of €91.9b in 2027. This implies a measurable 5.5% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 12% to €2.65. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €92.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.59 in 2027. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Eni

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €27.30, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Eni, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €32.80 and the most bearish at €21.80 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 3.3% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 4.4% decline in revenue until the end of 2027. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue shrink 2.0% per year. So it's pretty clear that Eni revenue is expected to decline at a faster rate than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Eni following these results. The consensus also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it is performing in line with expectations. Plus, our data suggests that Eni is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Eni analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Eni (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to be mindful of.

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