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Alligo AB (publ) Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
It's been a mediocre week for Alligo AB (publ) (STO:ALLIGO B) shareholders, with the stock dropping 10% to kr111 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at kr2.3b, although statutory earnings per share came in 16% below what the analysts expected, at kr1.84 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alligo's three analysts is for revenues of kr10.8b in 2027. This would reflect a notable 8.6% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 59% to kr11.24. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of kr10.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr11.53 in 2027. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.
View our latest analysis for Alligo
The average price target fell 5.3% to kr160, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Alligo, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr173 and the most bearish at kr150 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Alligo's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.8% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.0% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 9.7% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Alligo is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Alligo. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Alligo's future valuation.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alligo. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Alligo analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Alligo , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
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