History Says the Stock Market's Best 6 Months Start Nov. 1. Here's How Often They've Paid Off Since 1950.

"Sell in May and go away" is one of Wall Street's best-known sayings. It holds that the best time to own stocks runs from November through April, a pattern Jeff Hirsch and his father, Yale, popularized in the Stock Trader's Almanac.

This year, Nov. 1 lands on a Sunday. So the first trading day of the stretch is Monday, Nov. 2, and it's measured from the close on Friday, Oct. 30. The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) goes into it after closing Monday at 7,676.77, around 1.8% under its Oct. 6 record close of 7,818.93.

I wanted to check how well the saying has held up. I looked at the index's daily closes since 1950 and measured every stretch from the last close of October to the last close of April, on price alone, without dividends. The S&P 500 climbed in 58 of those 76 stretches, with an average gain of around 7%.

The better half

The other six months look ordinary beside that. Measured the same way, from the end of April to the end of October, the index finished higher in 50 of 76 years, averaging a gain of around 2%.

That gap adds up over time. If you chain all 76 November-to-April stretches together, $1 in the index would have grown to around $117 on price alone. Chain the 76 May-to-October stretches, and the same $1 would have hit only about $3.40.

So, most of the index's price gain since 1950 came during the November-to-April half.

But the summer months arguably have a worse reputation than they deserve. After all, they climbed around two years out of three. Selling in May would have meant skipping lots of good stretches, too.

How bad did the misses get?

Most were mild. Of the 18 losing stretches, 11 finished down under 5%, and the average miss was a loss of around 6.5%.

Six weren't mild. The index dropped around 17% from October 1973 to April 1974 and about 16% from October 1969 to April 1970. It lost about 13% from October 2000 to April 2001, about 11% from October 2007 to April 2008, about 10% from October 2021 to April 2022, and about 10% again from October 2008 to April 2009. Every one overlapped a bear market that eventually pushed the index at least 25% under a record close, by my count using the same daily data.

Holding stocks in the stronger half of the calendar didn't shield anybody from those drops, which probably had much more to do with interest rates and company earnings than with the month.

And the final numbers can understate the ride. From October 2008 to April 2009, the index finished down around 10%, though it had been down about 30% at its March 9, 2009, low. The stretch ending in April 2020 closed only about 4% lower, after a slide of about 26% by March 23, 2020. And the latest miss, from October 2024 to April 2025, ended down around 2% after losing about 13% by April 8, 2025.

Even last winter's gain came with a scare. The index climbed around 5% from October 2025 to April 2026, though it was down about 7% at its low in late March.

The calendar isn't a reason to wait

This year, the weaker half of the calendar wasn't weak at all. The S&P 500 is up over 6% since the end of April as I write, and around 12% in 2026.

The days right before the stretch are busy. The Federal Reserve, which hiked interest rates in September, announces its next decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28. Some of the index's largest tech companies also report quarterly results on Oct. 28 and 29. And the midterm elections are on Tuesday, Nov. 3, the stretch's second trading day.

Notably, the November-to-April stretch climbed in all 19 midterm years since 1950, by my count, with an average gain of roughly 15%. Of course, 19 elections don't make for much of a record, and I wouldn't read a forecast for this one into it.

Does the history make November a good time to buy an S&P 500 index fund? I think it makes it a fine time, just not a special one.

Odds of about three in four are good. But the six bad stretches show what the other one in four can be like.

For buy-and-hold money that can ride out a winter like the one that ended in April 2009, I'd consider buying an index fund now instead of keeping cash for a better month. The summer half that the old saying warns about still climbed in 50 of the past 76 years.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.