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Scorpio Tankers Reports After September's Rate Spike Came Too Late to Matter
Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Scorpio Tankers typically reports before market open, meaning Day 0 represents the first trading session where the market reacts to results, while Day +1 captures follow-through momentum.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | -$3.00 (-3.82%) | $3.96 (5.04%) | +$2.33 (+3.08%) | $3.68 (4.87%) |
| 2026-05-05 | +$3.35 (+4.02%) | $2.99 (3.59%) | -$4.06 (-4.69%) | $4.58 (5.29%) |
| 2026-02-12 | -$2.12 (-3.03%) | $3.93 (5.62%) | +$2.74 (+4.04%) | $3.61 (5.33%) |
| 2025-10-30 | -$0.89 (-1.43%) | $4.11 (6.63%) | +$0.56 (+0.92%) | $1.91 (3.13%) |
| 2025-07-30 | +$0.60 (+1.33%) | $2.54 (5.63%) | -$0.49 (-1.07%) | $1.63 (3.57%) |
| 2025-05-01 | +$0.66 (+1.75%) | $2.40 (6.35%) | +$1.41 (+3.68%) | $1.88 (4.90%) |
| 2025-02-12 | -$0.32 (-0.66%) | $1.78 (3.69%) | -$3.20 (-6.69%) | $4.76 (9.95%) |
| 2024-10-29 | -$1.63 (-2.67%) | $4.99 (8.19%) | -$1.25 (-2.11%) | $2.01 (3.39%) |
| Avg Abs Move | 2.34% | 5.59% | 3.28% | 5.05% |
Historical price action around earnings shows moderate volatility with an average absolute Day 0 move of 2.34% and Day +1 move of 3.28%. The most recent report on July 30, 2026, saw the stock decline 3.82% on Day 0 before rebounding 3.08% on Day +1, reflecting initial disappointment followed by reassessment. The largest single-day reaction came on February 12, 2025, with a 6.69% Day +1 decline, while the May 5, 2026 report produced a 4.02% Day 0 gain followed by a 4.69% Day +1 decline—illustrating how initial reactions can reverse. Intraday ranges have been substantial, averaging 5.59% on Day 0 and 5.05% on Day +1, suggesting significant intraday volatility even when closing moves are more modest. Investors should expect a move in the 2-3% range on the day of the report, with potential for follow-through of similar or greater magnitude the next session.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 11/20/26 (DTE 24) |
| Expected Move | $7.15 (8.38%) |
| Expected Range | $78.18 to $92.48 |
| Implied Volatility | 48.32% |
The options market is pricing an 8.38% expected move through the November 20 expiration, significantly larger than the stock's average historical Day 0 move of 2.34% and Day +1 move of 3.28%. This elevated implied volatility of 48.32% suggests options traders are anticipating more dramatic price action than the historical pattern would indicate, potentially reflecting heightened uncertainty around the sequential earnings decline and the timing of September's freight rate surge.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a strongly bullish stance on Scorpio Tankers, with the consensus rating at 4.46 out of 5.0—firmly in Buy territory. The breakdown shows overwhelming support: 10 Strong Buy ratings, 0 Moderate Buys, 2 Holds, 1 Moderate Sell, and 0 Strong Sells among the 13 analysts covering the stock.
The average price target of $96.61 implies 13.2% upside from the current price of $85.33, with estimates ranging from a low of $79.00 to a high of $120.00. The wide range reflects differing views on how the tanker market cycle will evolve, though even the low-end target sits below the current price by only 7.4%.
Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with the rating distribution holding steady at 10 Strong Buys, 2 Holds, and 1 Moderate Sell. This stability suggests analysts are maintaining conviction in their bullish thesis despite the expected sequential earnings decline, likely viewing the Q3 softness as a temporary pause in a multi-year upcycle for tanker rates. The consensus appears to be that the company's cheap valuation—trading at just 5.31 times trailing earnings—and strong execution track record justify the premium rating even as near-term results face headwinds.
Part 4: Technical Picture
Scorpio Tankers enters earnings with strong technical momentum across all timeframes. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently stands at 100% Buy, up from 64% Buy one week ago and 96% Buy one month ago, indicating a sharp strengthening in technical conviction heading into the report.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal indicates robust near-term momentum is firmly positive heading into earnings
- Medium-term (100% Buy): Maximum bullish reading suggests intermediate-term trend strength remains intact
- Long-term (100% Buy): Full buy signal reflects sustained strength in the longer-term trend structure
Trend Characteristics: The trend is characterized by Average strength but is Strengthening, suggesting momentum is building as the stock approaches the earnings release.
The stock is trading at $85.33, positioned above all key moving averages: the 5-day ($84.77), 10-day ($83.57), 20-day ($84.91), 50-day ($82.93), 100-day ($79.94), and 200-day ($76.54). This complete alignment above all moving averages confirms the bullish technical structure, with the stock maintaining a cushion of 11.5% above its 200-day moving average.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $84.77 | 50-Day MA | $82.93 |
| 10-Day MA | $83.57 | 100-Day MA | $79.94 |
| 20-Day MA | $84.91 | 200-Day MA | $76.54 |
The stock sits just 5.3% below its 52-week high of $90.06, suggesting limited overhead resistance, while standing 74% above its 52-week low of $48.93. Key support appears at the 20-day moving average of $84.91, which the stock is currently testing, with stronger support at the 50-day of $82.93. The overall technical setup is supportive heading into earnings, with the stock in a confirmed uptrend and all major moving averages providing layered support below current levels. However, the proximity to recent highs and the 8.38% options-implied move suggest the market is pricing in potential for a significant reaction in either direction.