To Catch a Falling Knife

Here's something you may not know, and it might be interesting to you, especially when these markets have such extreme movements from this arrow to this arrow.

This is something our clients get to watch throughout the year, and even those on trial get to see.

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The wheat market has been collapsing since peaking at the end of August and beginning of September, following the European drought, our own problems, and, more importantly, the war preventing grain from moving out of the Black Sea.

Yet, even with no grain moving, we've seen an absolute free fall in prices.

They keep chattering that the war is going to be over, and maybe it will be. But if that happens by the end of this week, all that chatter may already be priced into the market.

So, here's what I want you to see.

Each one of these arrows represents part of our 60-day cycle. You can literally go back on a continuation chart, mark every 60 days, and place an arrow on the last trading day of the month.

That would bring us to this Friday, October 30th.

Now, look back at August 30th. Granted, the high came two days later, but we were pretty close!

Let's go back further.

Here's June 30th, right at a very important low that the market had been grinding toward.

Now, let's go back even further.

Here's where it gets a little more interesting because of the volatility.

At the end of April, we had a high followed by an implosion in price. The market eventually recovered and made a new high, but that date still marked an important turning point.

Now, look at the rally from the beginning of the year.

You would have bought on December 30th.

Okay, this next one is a little funky. The market rallied ahead of that date, came down into it, and then took off again.

Let's go back a little further, into last fall.

Here, you can see another turning point at the end of August, when the market ran out of gas and began moving lower.

These are just things to observe that could potentially set a different course for the wheat trade.

As always, remember that past results are not indicative of future results. This is not a trade recommendation.

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*This is not trading advice; past results are not indicative of future results*