Ally Financial (ALLY) just delivered a busier quarter than usual, reporting higher third quarter net income, a 17% increase in the common dividend, and the completion of a multi hundred million dollar share buyback.
The recent announcements on earnings, higher common and preferred dividends, and the completed buyback are landing against a mixed share price backdrop for Ally Financial. The stock is down 15.2% on a year-to-date share price basis, but it is supported by a strong 78.9% three-year total shareholder return that signals earlier buyers have still seen sizeable gains.
See how Ally Financial’s capital return story compares with other dividend-focused opportunities in our hand-picked list of 5 dividend fortresses
Against that backdrop of richer dividends, completed buybacks and a share price that has fallen this year, does Ally Financial now offer enough upside to justify the risks you are taking at around US$38.81 a share?
On the most followed narrative, Ally Financial screens as undervalued, with a fair value estimate of $48.78 against the recent $38.81 close and a 12.07% discount rate applied to those future cash flows.
Corporate Finance portfolio growth to about US$13.7b with a 32% ROE and nonaccruals at historic lows points to a relationship-based, secured lending platform that can keep adding higher-return earning assets, which directly affects net interest income and overall ROTCE.
See why 43 investors see Ally Financial as 20% undervalued.
Result: Fair Value of $48.78 (UNDERVALUED)
Still, Ally Financial’s heavy exposure to auto lending and the risk of further recall driven lease losses could quickly challenge this narrative of margin recovery.
Find out about the key risks to this Ally Financial narrative.
Opinion is already split on Ally Financial, so treat this as a starting point and pressure test the numbers yourself. To see what is driving optimism on the upside, review the 5 key rewards.
If Ally Financial has your attention, do not stop here. Fresh ideas can sharpen your watchlist and highlight opportunities you might otherwise overlook.
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