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Stillfront Group AB (publ) Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
It's been a mediocre week for Stillfront Group AB (publ) (STO:SF) shareholders, with the stock dropping 19% to kr5.78 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of kr1.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 29% to hit kr0.18 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Stillfront Group's four analysts are now forecasting revenues of kr5.62b in 2027. This would be a credible 5.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Stillfront Group is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of kr0.96 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr5.56b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr0.97 in 2027. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
View our latest analysis for Stillfront Group
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of kr8.80, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Stillfront Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr11.00 and the most bearish at kr4.70 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Stillfront Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 4.5% annualised growth until the end of 2027. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 1.4% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 8.2% annually for the foreseeable future. So although Stillfront Group's revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Stillfront Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Stillfront Group analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Stillfront Group you should be aware of.
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