Berenberg Expects Q3 Sales Growth Slowdown for Prudential plc, Potential Q4 Recovery

01:44 AM EDT, 10/27/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Berenberg forecasts Prudential plc's (PRU.L) upcoming third-quarter results to show growth deceleration, presenting a "timely and attractive" buying opportunity ahead of a potential fourth-quarter sales recovery. The research firm said Monday it expects sales to slow sequentially to 4% in the third quarter, after an 8% increase in the first half, amid a "particularly strong" comparative base from the same three months in the previous year. Meanwhile, sales growth in terms of annual premium equivalent is expected to rise 4% year over year to $1.79 billion. "Our estimate is lower than the H1 2026 reported growth of 8% for three reasons: a) the headwind relating to the regulation in China known as Circular 65 and the associated constraint on commissions paid to banking networks in China started in Q2 2026 and is ongoing; b) the comparative growth in Q3 2025 was relatively strong at 12%, and it was particularly strong in July and August 2025 - ie providing a lower, less challenging comparative base in September 2025; and c) sales in Hong Kong to visitors from mainland China have slowed, partly due to increased regulatory restrictions, including taxation. While we think that sales in China and in Hong Kong will start to recover in Q4 2026, we believe the slowdown has been associated with the fall in the share price in 2026," analysts wrote, adding the British insurer's share price year to date dropped 23%, versus the 6% increase in the SXIP index of European insurers. Ahead of the company's third-quarter sales report due Nov. 4, Berenberg maintained its buy rating and price target of 14.45 pounds sterling on the stock.