Telstra shares gain 0% in 12 months: Safe haven or value trap?

Telstra Group Ltd (ASX: TLS) shares have fallen around 1% in Tuesday lunchtime trade to $4.90 apiece.

The slump doesn't look like much on paper, but what's interesting about Telstra shares is that they've stayed relatively stable throughout the past 12 months.

Over the past 52 weeks, the shares have moved between $4.56 and $5.58, and they're now exactly flat compared to 12 months ago, at the time of writing.

And it raises the question, are Telstra shares a safe-haven asset, or is the flatlining share price a signal that growth potential has passed?

What has happened to Telstra shares?

The shares spiked to a multi-year high in May but tumbled lower in June to an annual low in August after the company suffered a major nationwide network outage and a disappointing FY26 result.

Telstra posted a 0.8% decline in revenue and a 4.4% increase in underlying earnings.

But at the same time, the shares have also been supported by an investor rotation towards more secure, defensive assets amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and weakness in the Australian sharemarket.

So, could the shares jump higher?

It certainly looks like there's potential for Telstra shares to climb higher going forward.

Telstra operates Australia's largest mobile network, and is also a major home internet provider. 

Its defensive nature means it can generate stable, consistent earnings and revenue, regardless of where the economic cycle is. That's a classic characteristic of a safe-haven asset.

I think it also explains why Telstra shares haven't exploded higher over the past 12 months. Nor have they crashed lower.

Going forward, I think Telstra's share price will hinge on its next earnings announcement. 

The company is guiding its underlying EBITDA after leases (EBITDAaL) to be in the range of $8.5 billion to $8.8 billion for FY27, up from $8.3 billion in FY26.

If the company is able to meet, or even exceed, guidance, it will reassure institutional investors that business momentum is growing and help reinvigorate confidence in its shares.

Are Telstra shares a buy, sell, or hold?

It looks like the experts are hesitant about their outlook for the ASX telecommunications stock.

Market Index data shows the majority of brokers have a hold rating on Telstra shares. The $5.06 average target price implies an upside of around 3%, at the time of writing.

TradingView data shows some are slightly more positive. Of 16 analysts, 7 have a buy/strong buy rating on the telco's shares. Another eight have a hold rating. The $5 average target price implies an upside of around 2% at the time of writing. Although some think the shares could jump another 12% to $5.50 over the next 12 months.

My verdict

Are Telstra shares a safe haven or a value trap? I'd vote: safe haven.

The shares haven't rocketed higher over the past 12 months, but given the market volatility and sector-wide headwinds facing the Australian sharemarket, I think it's impressive that they have maintained roughly the same price level. 

The post Telstra shares gain 0% in 12 months: Safe haven or value trap? appeared first on The Motley Fool Australia.

Motley Fool contributor Samantha Menzies has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has positions in and has recommended Telstra Group. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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