Everbright Securities: There was a slight year-on-year decline in power generation in September. Focus on opportunities in the thermal power sector after the third quarterly report

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Everbright Securities released a research report saying that the year-on-year decline in thermal power generation narrowed to 1.4% in September, hydropower was affected by excessive depletion of incoming water from increase to decline (-18.1%), and the growth rate of nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation accelerated to 21.5%, 10.6%, and 19.5%. The electricity consumption of the entire society during the same period was 899.7 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 1.2% over the previous year; the electricity consumption of residents fell 6.0% due to typhoon “Shader”, and electricity consumption for tertiary production, charging and Internet data increased. In the current period of intensive publication of the three quarterly reports, judging from the three-quarter reports and third-quarter operating data already disclosed by some power users, the thermal power sector's performance is under pressure (which is also in line with its Q3 power generation situation), and hydropower expectations are relatively good.

The main views of Everbright Securities are as follows:

This week's market review: The SW Utilities Tier 1 sector fell 0.4% this week, ranking 20th among the 31 SW Tier 1 sectors; the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 1.57%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.69%, the Shenzhen Securities Index fell 1.09%, and the GEM Index fell 3.18%.

This week's data update: Domestic and imported thermal coal prices continued their upward trend this week. Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal thermal coal (northern China, liquidation price) exceeded 1,000 yuan/ton. As of October 23, '26, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal (northern China, liquidation price) at Qinhuangdao Port was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from last Friday (October 16, 1,025 yuan/ton).

Key events this week: 1) Various power operators have successively released results announcements and operating data for the third quarter, including Anhui Electric Power (Q3 net profit of 280 million yuan, -67.42%), Guodian Electric Power (Q3 power generation, feed-in capacity -1.30% and -1.18%, respectively); by type of power generation, coal-power/hydropower/wind power/photovoltaic feed-in electricity in a single quarter were -5.73%/+19.09%/-0.14%); China Investment Power (Q3 power generation, feed-in electricity volume, respectively); China Investment Power (Q3 power generation, feed-in electricity volume, respectively) YoY + 14.55% and +14.56%), Inner Mongolia Huadian (in the first three quarters, -4.13% year-on-year power generation (after traceability)). 2) In September, the electricity consumption of the whole society was +1.2% year-on-year.

Looking at electricity consumption by industry, electricity consumption in the primary sector was +4.1%; the secondary sector was +1.7%, of which industrial electricity consumption was +1.8%, and the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry was +4.6%; electricity consumption in the tertiary sector was +4.9%, of which the electricity consumption of charging and switching services and Internet data services was +57.0% and +35.4% year over year, respectively; the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was -6.0%. The main reason was affected by extreme weather such as the “Shader” typhoon. Demand for cooling electricity has declined. 3) In September, industrial power generation was -1.2% year-on-year according to regulations. From January to September, industrial power generation was +2.2% year-on-year according to regulations. By type, in September, the decline in industrial thermal power narrowed according to regulations, hydropower changed from increase to decline, and the growth rate of nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation accelerated.

This week's opinion: The year-on-year decline in thermal power generation narrowed to 1.4% in September. Hydropower was affected by excessive consumption of incoming water from increase to decline (-18.1%), and the growth rate of nuclear power, wind power, and solar power generation accelerated to 21.5%, 10.6%, and 19.5%. The electricity consumption of the entire society during the same period was 899.7 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 1.2% over the previous year; the electricity consumption of residents fell 6.0% due to typhoon “Shader”, and electricity consumption for tertiary production, charging and Internet data increased. In the current period of intensive publication of the three quarterly reports, judging from the three-quarter reports and third-quarter operating data already disclosed by some power users, the thermal power sector's performance is under pressure (which is also in line with its Q3 power generation situation), and hydropower expectations are relatively good. Currently, the market is still paying more attention to the level of signing the Yangtze Association in '27; given that coal prices are currently high and the performance of the thermal power sector is under pressure, the market is still optimistic about the level of signing the long-term agreement electricity price in '27.

Looking at long-term allocation, the dividend sector is an important allocation direction for long-term capital such as insurance capital, and can be continuously monitored over the long term; in the short term, the dividend sector still benefits from market trends. It also has phased opportunities. Nuclear power with incremental installed capacity and subsequent performance support, and hydropower operators with relatively stable profits are preferred. Thermal power and new energy operators are more cyclical. Currently, they are in the profit bottom search stage, and will form valuation repairs along with future profit improvement expectations or theme hype.

Risk analysis: systemic risks in the equity market; feed-in electricity prices have declined beyond expectations, coal prices have risen above expectations, demand for electricity has declined, incoming water and electricity falls short of expectations; industry reform progress is lower than expected, etc.