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The basic long term belief around C&D International Investment Group is that a pure play on mainland China property development and related services is still worth owning if management can keep turning contracted sales into cash and earnings while controlling leverage in a capital intensive business. The latest nine month update, with contracted sales value and area both declining year on year, puts more weight on execution around pricing, product mix and project phasing rather than on simple volume growth.
In the short term, softer contracted sales can affect revenue visibility and may test confidence in forecasts that still point to earnings growth of about 10.3% a year even as revenue is expected to decline by 4.3% a year. You are essentially being asked to believe that margins, cost control and project selection can offset weaker top line trends. The stock screens as good value on several metrics, including a lower P/E than peer averages, but that only matters if C&D International Investment Group can keep converting its pipeline into high quality earnings in a market that is already punishing laggards.
Yet there is one structural issue around how the group funds itself that could change how you think about that value story if ...
There's only one way to know the right time to buy, sell or hold C&D International Investment Group. Head to Simply Wall St's company report for the latest analysis of C&D International Investment Group's Fair Value.
The Simply Wall St Community only has two fair value views on C&D International Investment Group so far, yet they span roughly RMB 18.47 to RMB 313.98, which is an extreme spread. With those figures set before the recent 7.7% and 10.9% sales and area declines, you should treat them as starting points and then explore broader and updated perspectives.
Explore another C&D International Investment Group fair value estimate, including one that suggests it could be worth just HK$18.47!
Disagree with this assessment? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so consider your own analysis and judgment.
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