Bernstein's three-quarter digital asset stock report: Coinbase (COIN.US) earnings are under pressure, Robinhood (HOOD.US) predicts that market business will be a bright spot

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bernstein pointed out in the latest research report released on October 26 that as cryptocurrency and blockchain-related companies gradually shift from traditional digital currency transactions to predicting new businesses such as markets, asset tokenization, and financial derivatives, the digital asset industry's growth logic is changing. Despite the recovery in the cryptocurrency market in the third quarter, traditional spot trading activity was still weak, and progress in commercializing new products is becoming a key factor in determining the future growth potential of related companies.

In the third-quarter earnings forecast for Robinhood (HOOD.US), Coinbase (COIN.US), Circle (CRCL.US), and Figure (FIGR.US), Bernstein maintained a “outperforming market” rating for all four companies, but made different adjustments to their profit prospects and target prices. Among them, the agency drastically lowered the target price of Coinbase from $330 to $250, raised the target price of Circle from $140 to $145, and maintained the target price of Robinhood and Figure at $160 and $70, respectively.

Coinbase faces weak pressure from traditional cryptocurrency transactions, and the target price has been drastically lowered

Bernstein expects Coinbase's third-quarter revenue to be about US$1,268 million, up about 4% month-on-month, and adjusted EBITDA of about US$222 million, up about 7% month-on-month. However, its adjusted EBITDA forecast fell short of the market's consensus estimate of US$280 million.

According to the report, Coinbase's cryptocurrency spot trading volume for the third quarter is expected to be around 150 billion US dollars, which is basically the same as the previous quarter. Over the same period, the overall cryptocurrency industry's spot trading volume fell by about 8% month-on-month, reflecting that market trading activity is still insufficient.

The stablecoin business is expected to be the biggest driver of Coinbase's third-quarter revenue growth month-on-month. Despite the decline in the average circulation of USDC, the partnership with Hyperliquid is expected to increase USDC balances on the Coinbase platform, thereby driving growth in stablecoin-related revenue. Additionally, Bernstein expects Coinbase's third-quarter revenue growth of the market business to increase by about 60% month-on-month. The business's annualized revenue for the second quarter has surpassed $100 million.

However, as traditional cryptocurrency trading volume continues to fall short of previous expectations, Bernstein drastically lowered Coinbase's financial forecast for the next three years, lowering the 2026, 2027, and 2028 revenue forecasts by 32%, 31%, and 28%, respectively, to about US$5.5 billion, US$7.9 billion, and US$10.7 billion.

Meanwhile, the agency lowered Coinbase's 2026 earnings per share forecast from $5.97 to a loss of $2.60, and the 2027 earnings per share forecast from $13.20 to $4.15.

Despite this, Bernstein is optimistic about the long-term potential of Coinbase's transformation into an integrated trading platform. The agency predicts that by 2028, new products such as perpetual futures, derivatives, and prediction markets are expected to contribute about US$2 billion in revenue to Coinbase, accounting for 19% of the company's total revenue, a significant increase from less than US$600 million in 2026.

Robinhood benefits from stock, options and forecasting market trading growth, and the share of new business revenue is expected to rise to 25%

Compared to Coinbase, Bernstein is more optimistic about Robinhood's growth prospects. The agency estimates that Robinhood's third-quarter revenue was approximately US$1,473 million, up 13% from the market's consensus forecast of US$1,434 million; the adjusted EBITDA is expected to be US$819 million, higher than the market's forecast of US$770 million; and earnings per share are expected to be US$0.60, which is also higher than the market's expectation of US$0.57.

The main factor driving the increase in performance was continued active trading activity in the stock, options and forecasting markets.

Bernstein expects Robinhood's stock trading volume in the third quarter to reach about 900 billion US dollars, an increase of 4% over the previous quarter; the stock options trading volume was about 900 million contracts, an increase of 17% over the previous month; and the number of event contracts traded reached about 16.4 billion, an increase of 21% over the previous quarter.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency trading volume of Robinhood and its Bitstamp platform is expected to be around $50 billion, an increase of 22% over the previous quarter, indicating that related trading activity is recovering from the slump in the second quarter.

In terms of new business, Bernstein is particularly optimistic about predicting the market's development potential. The agency predicts that Robinhood predicts that market revenue will grow from approximately US$649 million in 2026 to approximately US$1,688 million in 2028, accounting for about 18% of the company's total revenue at that time.

In addition, Robinhood also plans to expand cryptocurrency perpetual futures trading in the US and promote the development of real-world asset tokenization business through Robinhood Chain.

Bernstein predicts that the combined revenue share of the predicted market, derivatives and tokenization business will increase from about 3% in 2025 to 25% in 2028, which will help reduce the company's dependence on traditional cryptocurrency spot trading.

Based on increased revenue from stock trading and new products, the agency raised Robinhood's 2026-2028 revenue forecast by 3%, 4%, and 3%, respectively, and raised the 2026 earnings forecast per share from $2.05 to $2.26, keeping the target price of $160 unchanged.

Circle received support from new stablecoins and blockchain businesses, and the target price was raised to $145

Stablecoin issuer Circle also received positive reviews from Bernstein.

The agency expects Circle's third-quarter revenue to be around US$772 million, up about 10% month-on-month; adjusted EBITDA is expected to be around US$194 million, up about 36% month-on-month.

Although the average circulation of USDC in the third quarter fell from about $77 billion in the previous quarter to about $73 billion, which may result in a slight decline in reserve asset revenue, Arc blockchain-related revenue is expected to offset this impact.

Bernstein expects Circle's third-quarter reserve asset revenue to be around $650 million, down from $668 million in the second quarter. However, as revenue related to the Arc token pre-sale is gradually confirmed, the company's other high-margin business revenue is expected to increase significantly.

The agency expects Circle's return on revenue (RLDC margin) after deducting distribution costs for the third quarter to increase from 41% in the second quarter to around 44%.

In the long run, Bernstein believes that Circle's growth opportunities come not only from the expansion of the USDC circulation scale, but also from new revenue sources such as transaction fees, verification services, and pledge income brought by the Arc blockchain ecosystem.

The agency predicts that the average circulation of USDC will grow from about 76 billion US dollars in 2026 to about 150 billion US dollars in 2028, driving Circle's revenue to achieve a compound annual growth rate of about 39% between 2026 and 2028.

Based on higher reserve asset yield assumptions and Arc-related revenue contributions, Bernstein raised Circle's 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast by 20% to approximately US$720 million, and the 2027 and 2028 forecasts by 24% and 17%, respectively, to approximately US$1.1 billion and US$1.6 billion. The agency raised Circle's price target from $140 to $145.

Bernstein believes that the digital dollar is expected to become an important infrastructure for internet payment and settlement systems in the future, and Circle is expected to occupy an important position in this market with USDC's first-mover advantage.

Figure's loan business continues to expand, and the growth potential of tokenized credit platforms is promising

Among the four companies, Figure's growth logic is different from traditional cryptocurrency trading platforms. Its core business is to use blockchain technology to promote loan issuance, financing, and asset transactions.

Bernstein pointed out that Figure's consumer loan transaction volume reached 5.1 billion US dollars in the third quarter, up 20% month-on-month and 107% year-on-year, and hit a new quarterly high. The agency expects Figure's adjusted net revenue for the third quarter to be approximately US$253 million, up 16% month-on-month; adjusted EBITDA will be approximately US$130 million, up 9% month-on-month.

Notably, after Figure's acquisition of Kiavi, the third quarter will consolidate the latter's residential transition loan business in financial statements for the first time. However, Bernstein's current financial forecast did not include Kiavi's contribution.

According to the report, Figure is transforming from a traditional loan issuance platform to a capital market service platform. By connecting loan issuers and investors, its Figure Connect business promotes transactions in various types of credit assets such as housing net worth credit lines, first-rank mortgages, automobile loans, and SME loans.

Currently, Figure has a partner network of over 500 companies. Bernstein expects Figure's annual loan transaction volume to grow from about US$16.8 billion in 2026 to about US$24.2 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of about 20%. Meanwhile, Figure Connect's share of the company's total loan transaction volume is expected to increase from 65% in 2026 to 75% in 2028.

Although changes in the business structure may cause Figure's comprehensive fee rate to decline, Bernstein believes that high-margin platform service fee revenue will offset this impact and drive continued improvement in the company's profitability. The agency predicts that Figure's adjusted EBITDA profit margin will increase from 53% in 2026 to 61% in 2028, and the adjusted EBITDA is expected to reach US$744 million in 2028.

Bernstein maintains Figure's “outperforming the market” rating and a target price of $70, believing that as a platform focused on tokenizing credit assets, it has strong potential for long-term structural growth.