US Stock Market Today: S&P 500 Futures Edge Higher On Inflation And Fed Test

The Morning Bull - US Market Morning Update Monday, Oct, 26 2026

US stocks are set to open with a cautiously positive bias, with futures pointing to modest gains as investors react to stubborn inflation expectations. The key driver today is the latest University of Michigan survey on future prices.

Year ahead inflation expectations in that survey sit at 4.7% for October, the highest reading since May. The five year outlook is 3.5%. Those figures keep attention firmly on the Federal Reserve policy path and the strength of the US dollar.

Higher expected inflation tends to pressure Treasury yields upward, which can lift borrowing costs for households and companies. That combination often weighs on valuations for interest rate sensitive areas and can challenge profit margins in parts of the economy that cannot easily pass on higher costs.

The unresolved question is whether upcoming data will confirm these inflation fears or show easing pressure. Chicago Fed activity numbers and the Fed meeting next week could either validate current rate expectations or force investors to rethink them.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

Microsoft (MSFT)

Microsoft heads into a busy week with earnings due alongside other mega cap tech groups as investors question when heavy AI spending will translate into financial results. At the same time, CEO Satya Nadella is reshaping the company around AI agents and new reporting segments. Watch for how the new structure and the Maia 300 chip are framed in the outlook commentary.

Coinbase Global (COIN)

Coinbase Global just announced a partnership with payments platform Thunes to plug its USDC stablecoin tools into a broad cross border payout network. Recipients can receive local currency in bank accounts or mobile wallets without using a crypto wallet. With earnings coming up, focus on any early traction metrics and how management positions stablecoin payments alongside tokenized stocks and AI features.

Dell Technologies (DELL)

Dell Technologies is in focus after Honeywell launched its Forge Plant Cognition industrial AI platform using NVIDIA AI and Dell’s AI infrastructure. The first deployment at Dangote’s Lekki refinery in Nigeria highlights how Dell AI Factory hardware can support heavy industry software. Traders will listen for any commentary on similar AI infrastructure deals and their impact on Dell’s data center business mix.

Top Movers

• Venture Global (VG) surged 9.29%.
• Crown Castle (CCI) jumped 9.06% after reports of advanced talks with SpaceX to lease thousands of U.S. cell towers.
• CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) climbed 8.25% as cybersecurity stocks rallied on PHP vulnerabilities and growing demand for AI driven security tools.

Top Losers

• Bloom Energy (BE) fell 11.24% after Q3 results raised guidance but highlighted negative free cash flow and analyst caution.
• Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO) declined 9.51% after MaxLinear targeted its core active electrical cable market with competing chips.
• Comfort Systems USA (FIX) fell 9.26% as strong Q3 results met profit taking after margin concerns and multiple analyst price target cuts.

On The Radar

Fed policy, US inflation gauges and a packed slate of megacap earnings are set to drive US trading over the next few sessions.

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Mon 26 Oct. The forecast of 0.1 compared with the previous reading of 0.04 gives a quick read on September growth. A softer print would take some pressure off Treasury yields and rate expectations.
• Fed Interest Rate Decision, Wed 28 Oct. The target rate is expected to hold at 4.0%. Any surprise change or shift in language around inflation and employment would matter immediately for the US dollar, bank stocks and longer term borrowing costs.
• US Q3 GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv, Thu 29 Oct. Economists look for 3.2% after 2.2% in Q2. A figure above that range would align with the current strong PMI story and could reinforce expectations for tighter financial conditions.
• US Core PCE Price Index MoM, Thu 29 Oct. Consensus sits at 0.3% after 0.2% in August. A hotter reading would underline the 4.7% Michigan inflation expectations and keep the focus on how restrictive Fed policy might need to be.
• Megacap tech and consumer earnings, Tue 27 Oct to Thu 29 Oct. Results from companies including Visa, Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.com put guidance and margins in focus, especially in cloud, digital ads and US consumer spending tied to card volumes and online retail.

Sector & Industry Watch

Tech: AI spending meets rate reality

Tech is softer over the past week and month while year to date and 1 year returns remain clearly positive. Heavy AI and cloud commitments from Microsoft, Amazon and others now sit against firm US inflation expectations, which keep borrowing costs and discount rates in focus.

If a big slice of your portfolio tracks broad US tech, this week’s earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are the key test for how quickly large AI outlays turn into revenue and cash flow.

Semiconductors: Strong year, funding questions build

Semiconductors still show solid gains over 1 year and year to date, yet the last 7 days and month point to a clear pullback. Comments from Nvidia on GPU demand going “through the roof” are now being weighed against warnings that many AI only data center operators are struggling to secure new financing.

If you hold chip focused ETFs, pay close attention to AI infrastructure commentary in reports from Nvidia and other hardware suppliers, since signs of slower data center ordering would help explain the recent weekly slide.

Energy: Solid run as supply risks stay in view

Energy is higher over the past week and month on top of strong 1 year gains, which lines up with firmer commodity prices and steady US activity data. The Borr Drilling rig loss off Gabon is a reminder that accidents can temporarily disrupt supply and keep attention on offshore safety and uptime.

For anyone holding US energy producers or pipeline funds, this week’s EIA crude and gasoline inventory reports are the main reference point for whether current price levels reflect tight supply or more comfortable stockpiles.

Real Estate: Rate ceiling caps recent bounce

Real Estate has picked up over the last 7 days and is modestly positive on a 30 day view, while 1 year performance is close to flat. Apartment focused REITs such as UDR are getting selective analyst support, yet weak US consumer sentiment and still elevated mortgage rates limit enthusiasm for a broad recovery.

If you own REITs or housing linked ETFs, Tuesday’s US building permits and new home sales data matter because they show how current borrowing costs are feeding into construction pipelines and buyer demand right now.

Healthcare: Trial wins support defensive role

Healthcare is positive across the week, month and past year, helped by a steady run of encouraging drug trial updates. Fresh oncology results from Johnson & Johnson, Regeneron, Agenus and others keep attention on pipelines and approvals rather than day to day swings in consumer spending.

If you use Healthcare as a stabiliser in your portfolio, Thursday’s US GDP and PCE inflation pack will be important for gauging how much investors continue to value earnings streams that feel less tied to discretionary demand.

Find Tomorrow's Top Performers

With Treasury yields under pressure from persistent inflation expectations and Fed policy back in focus, you can stress test your portfolio’s rate exposure with this list of 30 resilient stocks with low risk scores.

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