Qunzhi Consulting: Lidar fell from 80,000 US dollars to 200 US dollars, Chinese manufacturers monopolize 95% of the global market

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Qunzhi Consulting published an article stating that according to the “Global LiDAR Market In-depth Research Report” report analysis, the lidar scanning architecture has experienced clear intergenerational evolution. Mechanical rotary scanning has high accuracy, but is large in size, high in cost, and poor in reliability. Today, it is mainly relegated to Robotaxi and early testing purposes; semi-solid state solutions (MEMS microscopes, rotating mirrors) balance performance, cost, and reliability, and have become the mainstream choice for current L2+ mass-produced models; all-solid-state solutions (OPA, Flash) completely eliminate moving parts, and have the advantages of miniaturization, high reliability and low cost, and are regarded as the final form of the industry. Currently, the cost of mirror-type semi-solid state solutions continues to drop, mass production is being accelerated, and the industry is at a critical stage of scaling up.

Performance parameters were upgraded simultaneously, and the wiring harness and minimum angle resolution were both increased. The number of lines determines the vertical sampling density, and the angular resolution determines the target portrayal accuracy — mainstream products have moved from 64 lines and 128 lines to higher specifications: Huawei released 896 line lidars, and the Sagiteng Juchuang (02498) “Genesis” architecture has pushed the number of lines to 2,160 lines, and the industry has moved from “100 line level” to “2,000 line level”. In the past, the number of analog architectures was linearly bound to the cost, and the hardware cost increased by one level for each increase in resolution; the digital architecture removed this limitation, so that high-line number products maintained reasonable costs in large-scale mass production, and point cloud density gradually approached “image level”, providing more detailed perceptual input for identifying small and long targets.

The transceiver side is also changing the paradigm. The 905nm VCSEL+SPAD combination has gradually become mainstream. The receiving end uses a mature and inexpensive silicon-based process. Compared with the InGaAs detector required for the 1550nm solution, the cost advantage is remarkable, and the detection distance can be continuously increased by upgrading the receiver chip and ASIC. Chipization and digitalization are key ways to reduce costs: self-developed chips integrate hundreds of discrete devices into several special chips to simultaneously reduce costs, reduce miniaturization, and improve reliability. At the same time, high-line digital point clouds are superimposed on multi-sensor fusion, driving the evolution of lidar output to a full-color image level — after the dense point cloud superimposes color information, the 3D perception quality is close to the camera image, providing a more complete scene understanding for end-to-end intelligent driving.

$80,000 to $200: The fastest “popularization of luxury goods” in history, the era of safety standards has arrived

The automotive industry is currently the biggest incremental market. According to #群智咨询（Sigmaintell）《全球激光雷达市场深度调研报告》显示，2025年全球车载激光雷达全年装机约380万颗；2026年上半年全球市场装机量已突破330万颗（含NOA主雷达及补盲雷达），预计全年搭载交付约720万颗。 Price is the key driver of volume: the unit price of mainstream products fell from about 80,000 US dollars in 2016 to about 200 US dollars. It is rapidly covering economy cars, and lidar is moving from “high-end configuration” to “safety standard”.

Global automotive lidar market size forecast 2025-2031F (Unit: Bil, $)

Data source: Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) “Global LiDAR Market In-depth Research Report”

Among them, commercial vehicles require a higher sensing distance: in the truck's “lidar+telephoto camera+4D millimeter wave radar” fusion scheme, the lidar detection range can exceed 300 meters, nearly double the effective sensing range of about 200 meters for passenger cars. Closed scenarios such as mines, ports, and parks have taken the lead in large-scale commercialization — Sidi Smart Driving (03881) unmanned mining trucks shipped more than 1,900 units in the first half of 2026, an increase of 213% over the previous year, Easy Control Smart Driving (07687) surpassed 3,100 unmanned mining cards, and Tudatong (02665) ultra-long-range radars have operated more than 100 million kilometers in more than 20 mines. Nishijing Technology's Q-Truck is also operating normally in European ports.

Furthermore, new scenarios such as Robotaxis (the global fleet is expected to exceed 1.2 million vehicles and use more than 6 bicycles in 2030), lawnmower robots, and humanoid robots are continuing to open up the industry's growth ceiling. The four companies ate 95%: When the price reduction of 97% became a technical barrier, lidar entered the “Chinese oligarchy era” and automotive lidar formed an oligarchy pattern dominated by Chinese manufacturers. According to data from Qunzhi Consulting, the number of domestic automotive lidars installed in the first half of 2026 was about 2.48 million, with Tudatong and Huawei each accounting for 19.7%, Sagitengjuchuang accounting for 18.8%, and Hesai (02525) accounting for 36.8%. Together, the four companies exceeded 95%.

With faster iteration speed and scene response capabilities, Chinese companies continue to expand their leading position in competition with overseas manufacturers. The competitiveness of Chinese enterprises stems from a complete ecosystem and extreme cost reduction. From chip full-stack self-development (Hesai), full-stack smart driving solutions (Huawei), and platform-based layout (Suteng Juchuang) to high-performance differentiation (Tudatong), manufacturers use different paths to build barriers; industrial chain collaboration and large-scale mass production capacity have brought prices to the lowest in the world — the average price of Hexai products has dropped from 82,000 yuan in 2020 to about 1,800 yuan in 2025, a five-year drop of 97%. The batch purchase price of mainstream 128-line radars has reached the range of 1,000 yuan, forming a moat that is difficult for overseas manufacturers to replicate in the short term.

It fell 99.7% in ten years. Who is driving the lidar “cabbage price”

Intergenerational technology switching × chip integration × scale amplification × oligopoly competition

——Global automotive lidar average unit price evolution (2016 to 2026F)

Data source: Sigmaintell (Sigmaintell) “Global LiDAR Market In-depth Research Report”

Summarize

Technological maturity has lowered the entry threshold, opened up room for growth in market volume, and Chinese manufacturers have established a dominant position with ecological and price advantages. Looking ahead to the next 2-3 years, the industry will enter a new normal of “volume increase, price stability, and stable pattern”: after technology routes converge and prices stabilize, stock oligarchs will share the dividends of industry expansion, and lidar will also move from “optional hardware” for smart cars to “standard configuration.”