Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are trending higher early Monday to kick off a critical week of mega-cap technology earnings and central bank policy decisions, supported by cooling crude oil prices after President Donald Trump ruled out an immediate strike on Iran.

The Polymarket traders, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform, are bullish for the Oct. 26 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 26?” contract currently reflects a 69% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing a slate of green equity futures against shifting Middle East tensions and a packed corporate and economic calendar:

• Positive Index Futures: U.S. futures indicate a positive open across major benchmarks. Russell 2000 futures lead the advance, up 0.40%. Dow Jones futures rose 0.31%, S&P 500 futures climbed 0.26%, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 0.21%.

• Geopolitics & Retreating Oil: President Trump told reporters on Sunday that “there will not be a strike today” on Iran, easing near-term escalation fears. In response, energy markets cooled; Brent crude dropped 1.89% to $109.59 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 2.19% to $101.01 a barrel. The de-escalation remarks come even as U.S. diplomatic missions across the Middle East tightened security over intelligence warnings of advanced Iranian plots targeting Americans.

• Mega-Cap Earnings & Fed Meeting: Wall Street faces one of the busiest weeks of the third-quarter earnings, with Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) all slated to report. Investors will heavily scrutinize their massive AI expenditures for signs of revenue monetization. Concurrently, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kicks off its two-day meeting on Tuesday, with markets pricing in 90% odds that the central bank will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75%-4%. Later in the week, Thursday’s PCE inflation report will offer a fresh look at price pressures.

The Bear Case and Market Outlook

Despite Monday’s positive futures, some market strategists urge caution amid turbulent market internals and simmering geopolitical risks. Ed Yardeni recently pushed out his 8,400 S&P 500 target from year-end 2026 to mid-2027, setting a revised year-end target of 7,900. Yardeni cited concerns that a potential escalation in the Middle East war could push oil prices back above their $120 peak, heavily taxing consumer and corporate spending.

Yardeni also highlighted weak market breadth, noting that only 37.8% of S&P 500 companies are outperforming the index year-over-year. The “Magnificent 7” trade has rolled over recently, with Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:META) leading the latest leg down by falling 9.4% last week post-earnings. Wall Street will look to this week’s Big Tech results to see if the AI trade still holds enough fundamental weight to carry the broader market higher.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Oct. 23 Polymarket contract resolved “Down.” The contract recorded $28,975 in total trading volume.

On Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. SPY fell 0.52% to $759.97, while QQQ declined 0.01% to $704.40. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 1.24% lower at $521.37.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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