BofA Expects ING to Upgrade FY26 Outlook at Upcoming Q3 Results

01:00 AM EDT, 10/26/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BofA Global Research expects ING Groep (INGA.AS) to raise its full-year 2026 outlook at its third-quarter earnings report on Thursday, while flagging that consensus forecasts "overestimate" the trajectory of the Dutch lender's net interest income. "We forecast 3Q net profit of EUR1.9bn, up 6% YoY, driven by 5% revenue growth, partly offset by 3% higher costs and a 5% increase in CoR. Commercial NII and fees should remain robust, rising 12% and 5%. Building on 1Q and 2Q trends, ING could raise its 2026 liability margin guidance to above 110bp (from the upper mid-range of 100-110bp), reflecting higher ECB rates, with the replication portfolio benefiting from short-and long-term rates. However, 3Q26 QoQ momentum should soften versus 1H, as deposit costs become a bigger drag, reflecting the full-quarter impact of 2Q campaigns and higher Belgian regulated savings rates. We also watch deposit volumes as seasonal inflows reverse," according to an earnings preview note focused on banks from Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. Longer term, the research firm sees downside risk to consensus net interest income in 2027 and 2028, expecting reduced promotional activity to constrain deposit growth amid heightened competition and drive deposit betas above market expectations. Against this backdrop, BofA rates the stock at neutral, with a price objective of 30.50 euros.