BTC and gold hit the bottom for the first time in recorded history

According to Woofun AI, BTC and gold recorded annual returns of -7.3% and -7.5%, respectively, before October 23, 2026, taking the last two places among 21 major asset classes. This is the first time since 2011 that these two traditional safe haven and alternative investment targets have simultaneously bottomed out in their performance so far during the year — although there are still two months left in the year, and the final rankings are likely to change.

Charlie Billello, chief market strategist at Creative Planning, revealed this rare phenomenon through the X platform and pointed out that gold topped the list with a 63.7% increase in 2025, while BTC surged 121% in 2024, but after falling 6.3% last year, it continues to be weak this year. At the close of October 23, spot gold was reported at $3,995.81, falling below $4,000 for the first time since July; BTC reported $80,472, about 35% lower than its high of over $126,000 in October 2025.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the ETF product DBC, which tracks commodity indices, ranked first with a 52.5% increase. Major US value stocks rose 23.7%, the Nasdaq 100 index rose 15.1%, US large stocks rose 12.3%, short-term US bonds returned 2.9%, and only 57% of the 21 assets recorded positive returns during the year. The yield gap between commodities and gold is as high as 60 percentage points, highlighting the drastic degree of asset rotation.

The underlying reason is that the turbulent situation in the Middle East is driving up international oil prices, increasing inflationary pressure and strengthening market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike — CME FedWatch shows that traders have priced the December rate hike 68%. Since BTC and gold themselves do not generate interest, expectations of rising interest rates are putting more pressure on their valuations. Furthermore, risk aversion sentiment triggered by a wave of sell-offs dominated by technology stocks has further dampened BTC's price trend. Currently, the market is closely watching the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held from 27th to 28th, and the US PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) price index announced on the 29th. Future interest rate trends and midterm election results will be key variables in determining whether these two assets can rebound before the end of the year.