AI Bubble Index 74, CoreWeave (CRWV.US) Stock Price Threatens to Break $50

According to Woofun AI, CoreWeave (CRWV.US) shares continued to decline, hitting a new low of $54.25 since May last year, which is close to 70% lower than the all-time high. The market is concerned that it may fall below the $50 key mark.

Currently, the AI stock bubble index has climbed to an extreme area of 74 points, reflecting the scale of infrastructure investment and company valuations far exceeding actual disclosed revenue levels. Ray Dalio warned that rising interest rates could pierce a bubble, while Ken Griffin likened it to an internet bubble.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the Gartner report indicates that the risk of new cloud service companies is higher than that of large cloud computing companies, and it is estimated that by the end of 2030, artificial intelligence infrastructure investments worth more than $3.5 trillion may face the risk of impairment.

This macro concern directly translates into shorting pressure on CoreWeave (CRWV.US). Its shorting ratio has risen to 15%, the yield on bonds due in 2031 has also climbed to 15%, while the company's total debt is close to $30 billion, and capital expenditure is expected to remain high.

The worsening competitive landscape has increased valuation pressure. Almost all Bitcoin mining companies have poured into the new cloud service sector. RUM Group (RUM.US) (formerly Rumble) entered the market through the acquisition of Northern Data, SpaceX (SPCX.US) received Google (GOOGL.US) and Anthropic orders, and Meta (META.US) (formerly Facebook) and private companies such as Lambda, Nscale, and Firmus are also seizing market share. From a technical perspective, CRWV's stock price has fallen below the $64 “head and shoulder” trend neckline support level, while breaking through the 50-day moving average and the strong support and turning point of $75 shown by the Murrey Math Lines analysis tool. Currently, it is still below the supertrend indicator.

If the ultimate support level of $50 is breached, the stock price could fall further to the oversold region of $37.5. This is a severe stress test of the market's AI infrastructure valuation logic following the bursting of the internet bubble. The double squeeze of high leverage and new entrants is reshaping risk pricing in the industry.