Missed Halliburton's Rally? Here Is What Holders Saw

Halliburton’s year was packed with contract headlines, from multi-year Saudi Aramco work to a multibillion-dollar Vaca Muerta deal that put its ZEUS electric frac fleet and OCTIV Auto Frac platform in the spotlight. For Halliburton shareholders, the return over the past year was 34.2%, including dividends. If you were deciding whether to buy on 23 October 2025, what would you have needed to believe about those automation initiatives and international contracts before any of this was reflected in the share price?

A Narrative on Simply Wall St is one investor's written case for a company, with its growth, margin and multiple assumptions spelled out. Those assumptions imply an estimated Fair Value.

This theme extends beyond Halliburton. See which of 42 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks may still merit a closer look.

The Argument Halliburton Investors Were Really Weighing

The shares cost US$27.22 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at Halliburton then had to choose between two very different but plausible stories.

On the upbeat side, the bull Narrative saw Fair Value at US$35, or 29% above the start price. That view leaned on Halliburton’s automation rollouts and international work, assuming revenue would grow 1.7% a year and margins would reach 10.4% by 2028.

The bear Narrative put Fair Value at US$20, or 27% below the start price, and focused on decarbonization and regulatory risk. It assumed revenue would decline 3.1% annually and that profitability would edge down to an 8.0% margin by 2028.

What The Results Changed For Halliburton

Halliburton’s Q3 2026 figures gave the upbeat case real data to lean on. Revenue reached US$5,703m, net income reached US$417m and net margin moved from 0.3% in Q3 2025 to 7.3%. That shift in profitability supported the automation and international-contract story, although energy price swings and sector news still left the cautious view alive. Overall, the evidence cut both ways.

The key assumption here was margin expansion from technology and overseas work. For any other contractor, you would watch multi-year deal flow and then compare the promised efficiency story with the reported net margin trend each quarter.

What Halliburton's 34% Run Now Asks You To Believe

Halliburton shares now trade at US$34.92 after a 34.2% gain over the past year. The selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits above that quote, anchored in the idea that the business mix and cash generation story are not yet fully recognized.

The distinctive claim is that international contracts, higher margin digital tools and North American cash flows can compound into sturdier free cash flow. Any buyer today would need to judge whether those automation and software driven earnings and repurchases can actually be sustained.

"Key Takeaways: Bullish analysts expect Halliburton to turn its expanding international contract base, tighter North American frac market and higher margin digital offerings into stronger earnings power that is not yet fully reflected in the stock. The main thing that has to go right is that Halliburton converts its ahead of schedule international growth engines, higher margin software and automation work, and capital disciplined North American cash generation into sustained free cash flow that supports ongoing buybacks."

That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the higher Fair Value this Narrative argues for

Which Company Could Surprise You Next?

By the time a rally makes headlines, you are reading about returns someone else has already earned. Why not go straight to the source and look for your own contrarian opportunity? These three companies trade below our estimated value.

• Company 1 - 42% below our estimate - builds out a Pacific branch network after acquiring a deposit-focused regional lender.
• Company 2 - 37% below our estimate - expands payment routing so large online platforms can reach new emerging consumers.
• Company 3 - 40% below our estimate - scales device trade in and refurbishment as subsidies steer buyers toward recommerce.

That is three of the list. See all 29 potentially undervalued companies →

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