Guo Yanpeng, an energy researcher at Fangzheng Mid-Term Futures Research Institute, used “hold back first, then increase” to summarize this week's fuel oil price trend. In his view, there are four major supports for this round of fuel oil price increases. First, the supply of the two major fuel oil exporters in the Middle East and Russia contracted simultaneously, with the two regions accounting for more than 60% of the world's total exports. Since October, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, and exports of refined oil products from the Persian Gulf are about 30% lower than normal; Russian refineries have been attacked frequently, crude oil processing volume has declined, and fuel oil exports have fallen from about 900,000 b/d last year to around 500,000 b/d. Second, logistics costs remain high, the arbitrage window from Europe to Singapore is closed, and additional external supplies are scarce. Third, shipping transfers and refinery restructuring bring dual demand support. Upstream decompression residual oil prioritizes the supply of diesel and gasoline, and diverts fuel oil resources. Fourth, fuel oil stocks in Singapore and Fujairah have been low in recent years, and there is very little room for price buffers. Looking ahead to the future market, Guo Yanpeng believes that fuel oil prices will be strong in the short term and will have greater upward flexibility. Currently, the US-Iran game has entered a critical window. The uncertainty of the geographical situation has risen markedly. Combined with low crude oil and fuel oil inventories, the market's response to supply disruptions will be amplified, and the probability of repeated and broad market fluctuations will increase.

Guo Yanpeng, an energy researcher at Fangzheng Mid-Term Futures Research Institute, used “hold back first, then increase” to summarize this week's fuel oil price trend. In his view, there are four major supports for this round of fuel oil price increases. First, the supply of the two major fuel oil exporters in the Middle East and Russia contracted simultaneously, with the two regions accounting for more than 60% of the world's total exports. Since October, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, and exports of refined oil products from the Persian Gulf are about 30% lower than normal; Russian refineries have been attacked frequently, crude oil processing volume has declined, and fuel oil exports have fallen from about 900,000 b/d last year to around 500,000 b/d. Second, logistics costs remain high, the arbitrage window from Europe to Singapore is closed, and additional external supplies are scarce. Third, shipping transfers and refinery restructuring bring dual demand support. Upstream decompression residual oil prioritizes the supply of diesel and gasoline, and diverts fuel oil resources. Fourth, fuel oil stocks in Singapore and Fujairah have been low in recent years, and there is very little room for price buffers. Looking ahead to the future market, Guo Yanpeng believes that fuel oil prices will be strong in the short term and will have greater upward flexibility. Currently, the US-Iran game has entered a critical window. The uncertainty of the geographical situation has risen markedly. Combined with low crude oil and fuel oil inventories, the market's response to supply disruptions will be amplified, and the probability of repeated and broad market fluctuations will increase.