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    Churchill Downs (CHDN) Could Be 34% Undervalued Following Its Portfolio Reshaping Plan

    Simply Wall St·10/24/2026 11:28:57
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    Churchill Downs (CHDN) heads into its upcoming September quarter earnings report with Wall Street expecting earnings per share of US$1.28 and revenue about 2% above the same period last year.

    Churchill Downs shares trade at US$83.73, with the stock up over the past month on a 1-month share price return of 4.06%, yet still under pressure given a year-to-date share price decline of 25.21% and a 1-year total shareholder return that is down 16.78%, which suggests sentiment has cooled even as investors weigh potential earnings resilience against perceived risk in the story.

    Scan how Churchill Downs compares with other potential turnaround stories by reviewing the hand picked 27 high quality undervalued stocks that combine earnings power with balance sheet discipline.

    So with Churchill Downs drifting after a weak year yet trading well below both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, where does a reasonable fair value anchor actually land for this stock now?

    Most Popular Narrative: 34% Undervalued

    Churchill Downs is currently priced at $83.73 while the most followed narrative framework pegs fair value at about $126.33. This frames a wide gap that hinges on how management reinvests and reshapes the portfolio over the next few years.

    Strategic review and potential sale of nine regional gaming properties is expected to recycle capital into higher return projects at Churchill Downs Racetrack, core HRM assets, and share repurchases, which could reshape the revenue mix toward businesses that have historically supported stronger EBITDA margins and free cash flow generation.

    See why 7 investors see Churchill Downs as 34% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of $126.33 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, if regional casino sales drag or racing brands such as the Preakness contribute less over time, the appeal of Churchill Downs’ reshaping plan could diminish.

    Find out about the key risks to this Churchill Downs narrative.

    Next Steps

    Sentiment around Churchill Downs is split, with clear risks on one side and convincing bright spots on the other. Move quickly and weigh the evidence yourself by reviewing the 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond Churchill Downs?

    If Churchill Downs has you thinking harder about where to put fresh capital, use this moment to scan other opportunities before the next wave of results hits.