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Adani Green Energy Limited Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Shareholders might have noticed that Adani Green Energy Limited (NSE:ADANIGREEN) filed its half-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.0% to ₹1,185 in the past week. Adani Green Energy beat revenue expectations by 6.8%, at ₹92b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at ₹9.05, some 9.1% short of analyst estimates. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Adani Green Energy are now predicting revenues of ₹180.8b in 2027. If met, this would reflect a sizeable 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 66% to ₹18.15. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of ₹182.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of ₹17.39 in 2027. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Adani Green Energy's earnings potential following these results.
View our latest analysis for Adani Green Energy
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of ₹1,516, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Adani Green Energy at ₹1,800 per share, while the most bearish prices it at ₹980. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Adani Green Energy's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 48% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 22% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 16% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Adani Green Energy is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Adani Green Energy following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at ₹1,516, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Adani Green Energy going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Adani Green Energy that you should be aware of.
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