Metso (HLSE:METSO) Q3 Earnings Reveal Margin Strength Behind Stock Weakness

Metso shares closed at €16.07 on Thursday, leaving the stock down over the past week and month just as fresh Q3 2026 numbers hit the tape. At first glance that price softness hints at nerves. The latest report instead highlights a business pulling in heavy equipment demand and turning it into profitable work.

Order intake jumped to €1.614b, while sales reached €1.373b and adjusted EBITA climbed to €230m with a 16.8% margin. Short-term traders are focused on the recent slide. Long-term holders will likely be watching that expanding backlog and resilient profitability profile.

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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €1,373m vs. €1,328m (+3.4%)
• Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €128m vs. €142m (declined 9.9%)
• Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): €0.16 vs. €0.17 (fell 5.9%)
• Adjusted EBITA Margin (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): 16.8% vs. 16.7% (slight improvement)

Ask Charlie what Metso’s big minerals order spike really signals.

Metso’s Aftermarket Ambition Meets Hard Q3 Evidence

Metso’s bullish script leans heavily on building a larger, stickier service engine rather than just selling big machines.

"The company is actively targeting a higher aftermarket share, with investments such as new screening manufacturing capacity in Romania and acquisitions in screening, mill liner recycling and hoses, which can support more resilient revenue and potentially steadier margins over time."

The latest quarter lines up well with that claim. Aftermarket accounted for 57% of group sales and 64% in Minerals, helped by orders like the South American analyzer Life Cycle Services deal and the Chile thickener upgrade. Group adjusted EBITA margin of 16.8% held firm, suggesting this mix is already supporting earnings quality.

One Narrative disagrees with today's price. → See where this Narrative says Metso Oyj should trade.

Metso bear case on services meets mixed evidence

The bearish script argues that Metso’s services engine never really re-accelerates, which would cap earnings power even if equipment orders look healthy.

"A slower than expected recovery in higher margin services, including upgrades and modernizations that were close to zero in late 2024 and are only gradually feeding into 2025, could keep the services share of sales subdued and cap group EBITA margins and earnings."

Q3 tells a more balanced story. Services now make up 57% of group sales and 64% of Minerals, and adjusted EBITA margin sits at 16.8%. Net income excluding extra items declined 9.9% year on year and EPS slipped, so profitability is not racing ahead, but the mix is no longer subdued.

Hunt For Quiet Earnings Power

Metso Oyj just showed how a steady backlog and solid margins do not always line up neatly with short term share moves. The real opportunity sits in finding companies that could be undervalued before the market notices.

• Company 1 - 48% below our estimate - targets tighter energy, air quality and fire safety rules that encourage higher efficiency ventilation and protection systems.
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• Company 3 - 24% below our estimate - shifts its mix toward branded packaged foods and higher value drinks that strengthen shelf presence and pricing power.

Those are three of them. See the full list of 192 companies trading below our fair value estimates →

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