Australian Stock Market Today: ASX Futures Edge Up On Oil Strength And Inflation Data

The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Thursday, 22 Oct 2026

Australian shares look set for a slightly positive open, with sentiment leaning toward energy. The single big driver is oil, as Brent crude trades above US$110 a barrel on renewed Middle East conflict concerns.

US crude inventories have recorded a sharp draw, which is helping keep Brent above US$110. That combination of supply worries and tighter stockpiles signals a firm near term pricing backdrop that feeds directly into expectations for Australian resource exposure.

Higher oil prices tend to lift cash flow expectations for producers and related infrastructure, while also pushing up fuel and freight expenses for transport heavy industries. That mix can widen performance gaps across the index as investors reprice input costs and earnings sensitivity.

The unresolved question is how long this oil strength lasts before it starts to press on global growth expectations. Upcoming PMIs and US data could flip the story from earnings support for energy to concern about demand destruction if activity readings soften.

Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell

AGL Energy (AGL)

AGL Energy has lodged its 125 MW, 500 MWh Abermain grid battery with federal EPBC assessment, another step in its plan to shift away from coal and build 1.4 GW of large scale storage by 2035. A fund manager has also flagged AGL as undervalued. Watch how regulators and large investors respond to this transition pipeline.

AUB Group (AUB)

AUB Group has agreed to buy Aon’s One Underwriting Australia, a specialist Managing General Agent that services more than 250 brokers across complex property, liability and niche risks such as drones and specialty vehicles. The deal is still subject to regulatory approval and usual conditions, and would lift AUB’s underwriting reach and deepen insurer relationships.

Cleanaway Waste Management (CWY)

Cleanaway Waste Management used yesterday’s AGM to update on FY26 and the proposed acquisition by EQT Infrastructure at A$3.095 per share net of the final dividend. The board backs the scheme in the absence of a higher offer. Investors now watch regulatory reviews, the shareholder vote, and how FY27 EBIT guidance of A$500m to A$530m tracks.

Top Movers

• NEXTDC (ASX:NXT) rose 7.48% as traders reassessed recent guidance cuts and earlier heavy selling in the stock.
• Nuix (ASX:NXL) climbed 6.48% after launching its Nuix Neo AI Agent for forensic grade investigative analytics.
• Pro Medicus (ASX:PME) gained 4.65% following its A$24m, 7 year Visage 7 contract with Billings Clinic Logan Health.

Top Losers

• Codan (ASX:CDA) fell 8.08% after investors reacted to AGM updates on acquisition appetite and evolving capital structure flexibility.
• MA Financial Group (ASX:MAF) declined 7.71% after suspending redemptions on property lending funds and deciding to wind up a retail fund.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals (ASX:TLX) fell 5.92% following detailed Q3 results, merger plans with ITM and reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance.

On The Radar

Inflation data and resource earnings cluster over the next few sessions, setting the tone for how Australian rate expectations and commodity exposed stocks trade into month end.

• S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs Australia Thu 22 Oct. The October flashes, with manufacturing forecast near 49.4 and services at 51.1, will shape how you think about domestic demand resilience and pricing power for ASX industrials and service groups.
• Australian CPI and Trimmed Mean CPI Wed 28 Oct. Headline inflation is forecast at 4.1% year on year with trimmed mean at 3.6%. A stronger print would reinforce higher for longer local borrowing costs and pressure interest sensitive sectors like discretionary retail and real estate.
• Perseus Mining Tue 27 Oct. The Q1 2027 update will put production volumes and unit costs under the microscope, which speaks directly to cash generation from its gold operations and how comfortably the miner funds ongoing project spend.
• Mineral Resources Fri 23 Oct. Q1 2027 figures will focus attention on realised prices and operating margins across its iron ore and lithium businesses, key inputs for how investors frame capital intensity and balance sheet flexibility.
• US Fed Interest Rate Decision Wed 28 Oct. The Federal funds rate is currently 4% with consensus at 4.0%. Any surprise move or guidance shift would ripple through the US dollar and in turn the A$/US$ rate that matters for Australian exporters.

Sector & Industry Watch

Energy: Oil strength keeps momentum alive

Energy has edged higher over the past week and remains one of the stronger performers over the year, helped by oil prices holding above US$110 a barrel. That combination of firm crude and positive 7 day sector returns means producers, pipelines and LNG plays are still doing more of the heavy lifting for the local index than many others.

If you hold oil or gas exposure, the next thing to watch is the upcoming US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash. A softer read on global factory activity could raise questions about how sustainable current demand for fuel looks, which would feed back into pricing and sentiment toward Australian producers.

Real Estate: Rate pressures still biting listed property

Real Estate has slipped over the past week and is still down clearly on a 1 year and year to date view, even with a small rise over the past month. Higher borrowing costs keep weighing on highly geared landlords as debt becomes more expensive and investors question how secure future distributions are.

For A REIT holders, that means the focus stays squarely on balance sheets and asset sales like RAM Essential Services’ recent retail disposals to trim gearing. The key local catalyst here is the Australia CPI and trimmed mean CPI print. A hotter inflation result would tend to keep funding costs elevated for longer, which matters directly for listed property valuations.

Consumer Staples: Everyday spending supporting defensives

Consumer Staples has been one of the brighter spots, with the sector up over the past week and month and showing positive year to date and 1 year returns. Supermarkets and liquor chains such as Woolworths and Endeavour Group are benefiting from households still prioritising food and essentials, even as mortgage and rent costs stay high.

If you rely on these stocks for portfolio stability, keep an eye on the upcoming Australia monthly CPI data. A stickier inflation pulse, especially on food, can support revenue in dollar terms but also raises questions about how far shoppers can absorb price rises before trading down or cutting volumes.

Financials and Banks: Rate path steering recent rebound

Financials have climbed over the past week and month, and Banks have also moved higher over 7 and 30 days even though the 1 year picture is still weaker. The move lines up with markets pricing the risk that rates stay restrictive for longer, which can support interest margins while at the same time putting pressure on some borrowers.

For anyone with a big allocation to the major lenders or diversified financial groups, the main near term swing factor is Australia’s trimmed mean CPI release. A stronger than expected core inflation read would likely shape views on future RBA decisions and, in turn, how sustainable recent margin support and credit quality look for bank earnings.

Healthcare and Pharmaceuticals & Biotech: Early signs of a cautious rebuild

Healthcare and the Pharmaceuticals & Biotech industry have both recorded gains over the past week and month, even though the 1 year track record for each group still shows declines. Recent updates from companies like Healius, Sigma Healthcare and a cluster of smaller biotechs point to active clinical pipelines and earnings rebuilding after a tough stretch.

If you own this part of the market for diversification away from pure cyclical sectors, watch how upcoming US S&P Global Services PMI and Michigan consumer sentiment prints land. Those indicators shape global risk appetite and funding conditions for higher growth, research heavy businesses, which can flow through to how the Australian market prices Healthcare and biotech stories.

Don't Just Read The News, Use It

With real estate stocks still feeling the bite from higher borrowing costs and inflation risk, start by stress testing your income holdings against this list of 5 dividend fortresses.

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