The S&P 500 Is Just Shy of a Record With 10 Weeks Left in the Year. Here's What History Says Could Happen Next.

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) closed at 7,757.17 on Oct. 21. This put the index around 0.8% under its record close of 7,818.93 on Oct. 6, which was its 28th record close in 2026 and its first since August.

With around 10 weeks left in the year, then, it needs just a slight rise to post another one. The index is already up about 13% in 2026 as of this writing. And that's even after the Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate in September for the first time in over three years.

I wanted to learn how often a setup like this has turned into a new high before the calendar flipped. I went back through the index's daily closes to 1928 and picked out every year it stood within 1% of a record on Oct. 21. There were 16 of them, and the result was more lopsided than I thought.

Sixteen for 16

For each year, I used the index's Oct. 21 close (or the nearest earlier close if Oct. 21 fell on a weekend) and checked it against the highest close the index had logged up to that day. The years that made the cut were 1928, 1958, 1961, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1968, 1993, 1995, 1996, 2013, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2024, and 2025.

All 16 later set at least one new record close before year-end.

Often, it didn't take long. In 1965 and 2013, the next record came the very next trading day.

Other years made investors wait. In 1993, the index didn't beat its old high until Dec. 27.

And the result doesn't rest on the 1% limit. Raise it to 1.5%, and three extra years make the list (1980, 1982, and 1997). Each one set a new record before year-end, too.

A caveat about the earliest year: the S&P 500 launched in its 500-stock form in March 1957. The 1928 numbers are from its 90-stock predecessor, the Composite Stock Index, which the Standard Statistics Company calculated daily. And all these figures are on price only, without dividends.

A new record isn't a strong finish

Hitting a record before year-end isn't the same as finishing the year strong, though. The index can reach a new high in November, pull back, and still end the year lower.

This happened twice. From Oct. 21 to the last trading day of December, the index rose in 14 of the 16 years. The two that didn't were 1964, when it dropped around 0.4%, and 1968, when it fell about 1%. In 1968, the index posted 10 new record closes after Oct. 21. It peaked on Nov. 29 around 3% above where it was on Oct. 21. By Dec. 31, though, it had given it all back and more, ending around 4% below its Nov. 29 high.

The winning years were often modest, too. The median year in the set gained around 4%. And five of the 16 (1964, 1965, 1968, 1993, and 2024) ended within about 1% of where they were on Oct. 21, up or down.

In 2024, for instance, the index slid around 2.5% by Oct. 31 before hitting its next record in early November. It finished the year up only about 0.5% from its Oct. 21 level.

What does that mean for 2026?

To hit a new record, the S&P 500 would have to close above 7,818.93, around 0.8% over where it ended on Oct. 21. Given this history, that looks likely to happen sometime before the year ends.

Of course, 16 years is a small sample. And this year has its own risks. Beyond the Fed's September rate hike, the 10-year Treasury yield topped 5.3% in early October -- its highest level since 2002.

The climb to the Oct. 6 record also relied on a narrow set of stocks linked to artificial intelligence (AI).

So how the year ends might depend a lot on whether these companies' earnings keep rising fast enough to support their share prices.

Would I bet on a new record before New Year's Eve? Probably. Every similar year since 1928 saw one, and the index doesn't need much of a boost.

But I wouldn't take that history as a forecast of a big year-end gain, and I don't see it as a reason for a buy-and-hold investor to add to or trim a fund that tracks the index. A move of a percent or two either way over 10 weeks shouldn't change much for money meant to stay invested for years.

Daniel Sparks and his clients do not have positions in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.