Tesla Q3 Results Overshadowed by SpaceX Merger Talk: Analysts Struggle to See ‘Meaningful Upside’ From Deal

Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is trading down Thursday after the company reported mixed financial results for the third quarter on Wednesday. Analysts remain mostly bullish on the stock, but are not increasing price targets after the latest report.

• Tesla stock is under selling pressure. What’s driving TSLA stock lower?

The Tesla Analysts

• Bank of America analyst Alexander Perry reiterated a Buy rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $460.
• TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $460.
• StoneX analyst Mickey Legg maintained an Overweight rating with a price target of $475.
• Needham analyst Chris Pierce reiterated a Hold rating with no price target.
• Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Shepard reiterated an Overweight rating with a price target of $485.

Bank of America on Tesla Stock

With robotaxi miles increasing, Tesla’s scaling has begun, Perry said in a new investor note.

"We think TSLA’s scaling of its robotaxi service has hit an inflection point," Perry said.

The analyst said Tesla’s core EV business is strong with a large backlog four years out, as indicated by the company.

Perry said Tesla is moving past "early autonomy monetization" and robotaxis could be a "meaningful earnings driver" by the end of 2027.

TD Cowen on Tesla Stock

Third quarter results showed encouraging vehicle backlog and FSD updates, Michaeli said in a new investor note.

"We walk away more encouraged by automotive gross margin expansion, FSD/Robotaxi updates, and positive EV demand comments," Michaeli said.

The analyst said the capex update and Optimus timeline could draw some debate but aren’t a "major concern."

"Continued growth in FSD attach rates serves as a positive read for our bullish consumer AV adoption thesis."  

StoneX on Tesla Stock

Talk of a potential merger with SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) stole the spotlight from Tesla’s earnings, Legg said in a new investor note.  

The analyst said there were multiple positives for the company in the quarter, but most attention will be placed on the potential tie-up of the two Elon Musk-led companies.

"No agreement on terms and no guarantee on one, but (Musk) thinks it would be a good idea," Legg said.

Musk owns around 80% of the SpaceX vote and around 20% of Tesla vote. Legg said a deal between the two companies would swap Tesla’s independent governance for Musk’s SpaceX control, which means "the premium has to compensate" shareholders.

Needham on Tesla Stock

Similarly, Pierce said SpaceX merger talk could cloud the current upside for Tesla.

"SPCX for TSLA conversations grew louder this week, potentially capping upside ahead of a potentially modest takeout premium given TSLA’s robust valuation," Pierce said.

The analyst said FSD take rates and vehicle demand were positives for the quarter.

Talks of a merger could be a negative for Tesla stock, the analyst noted.

Cantor Fitzgerald on Tesla Stock

"We struggle to see a meaningful upside from a potential SpaceX merger given TSLA’s robust valuation," Pierce said. "We see a higher likelihood of a modest takeout premium, similar to xAI’s purchase of the social media platform X."

Strong FSD subscription numbers and robotaxi updates were highlights from third-quarter results for Sheppard.

The analyst called FSD a "key near-term growth driver for demand."

"We continue to expect TSLA to pursue additional FSD cities in Europe, and we view this as an underappreciated yet material growth driver for the company in the near-term," Sheppard said.

Sheppard expects Tesla to scale the robotaxi rapidly to become the market leader.

Tesla Stock Price Action

Tesla stock is down 2.02% to $378.68 on Thursday versus a 52-week trading range of $297.38 to $498.82. Tesla shares are down 12.6% year-to-date in 2026.

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