Here's What an $8,000 Investment in SpaceX Could Be Worth by 2030

Since going public in June, Space Exploration Technologies' (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock has been volatile.

Investors are grappling with the company's $2 trillion valuation and its ambitious agenda, ranging from providing most of the planet's wireless internet one day to launching data centers into space to building a massive Terafab facility.

There are lots of unknowns, but here's what an $8,000 investment in SpaceX could be worth in 2030.

Analysts see massive growth ahead

Stocks are typically valued on multiples of their earnings, revenue, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). Companies growing these metrics faster will earn higher multiples. Part of the reason SpaceX has received a $2 trillion valuation is that investors believe the company will grow quickly, and to some extent it already has.

For instance, Wall Street analysts project revenue to more than double to over $45.6 billion by year-end, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to also more than double to over $23 billion, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Assuming that happens, SpaceX's current market cap values the company at 44 times 2026 forward revenue and 87 times forward EBITDA. If we look at analyst estimates in 2030, revenue is projected to absolutely soar to over $492.5 billion, while adjusted EBITDA would surge to over $357 billion.

The 2030 revenue projection is the average among 20 analysts, with a pretty large disparity in estimates. The low estimate is roughly $219 billion, while the high estimate is over $708 billion.

There are also 20 estimates for adjusted EBITDA, ranging from roughly $99 billion to $576.5 billion. If you were to apply the same multiples SpaceX trades at today to these forward estimates, the company would be valued at $21.6 trillion based on revenue and nearly $31 trillion based on adjusted EBITDA.

Typically, as companies get much bigger and their markets become more saturated, their multiples decline. However, if SpaceX grows like this, where revenue and adjusted EBITDA are growing by 10- and 15-fold, who knows what the stock's multiples would be?

If we assume multiples get cut in half, the stock would be valued anywhere from $10.8 trillion on revenue to $15.5 trillion on adjusted EBITDA. If we go with this more conservative approach right now, an $8,000 investment in SpaceX would be worth between $43,200 and $62,000, generating spectacular returns.

A valuation exercise is largely theoretical

Assigning a multiple to a stock is done on an imperfect basis, and it's even more difficult when we are largely in uncharted territory. SpaceX is an ultra-fast-growing stock already garnering a multitrillion-dollar valuation. The market is naturally going to be skeptical.

But what's even more important is examining the underlying assumptions that drive revenue and EBITDA to see whether they make sense.

We don't know exactly what's behind each analyst's assumptions, but if they are giving SpaceX credit for launching data centers into space or completing activities with SpaceX's super-heavy-lift, fully reusable rocket, Starship, there is a lot that could go wrong.

Starship is still in testing, and things like data centers in space are still by no means a guarantee, as are many of SpaceX's ambitions. Just looking at this year alone, analysts think revenue will jump from $7.8 billion in the second quarter to over $20 billion by the fourth quarter.

Also, after each quarter, analyst projections can change significantly as they incorporate new information into their models.

Additionally, for SpaceX to achieve everything it wants to, it will incur significant capital expenditures, likely requiring the company to take on substantial debt and issue equity, which would dilute existing shareholders.

On average, analysts project that SpaceX will have close to $1 trillion in capex, including the full years of 2026 through 2030, and generate tens of billions of dollars in negative adjusted free cash flow.

It's hard to know where all this funding might come from, or whether it's even possible.

The risk factor

In theory, an investment in SpaceX could generate phenomenal shareholder gains. But it depends on many assumptions that may not materialize and on goals that may not be met, so I still view the stock as a very risky investment right now.

Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends S&P Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.