Analyst Ray Wang, who is the founder of Silicon Valley-based Constellation Research, said on Wednesday that a merger between Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) would help Elon Musk develop technologies he is aiming for.
During an interview with CNBC, Wang said that there were a “lot of synergies” in what SpaceX and Tesla are working towards, be it self-driving or battery technology or more. When asked about a merger, Wang said that he did see such a deal going through.
Wang pointed to SpaceX’s dual-class share structure as the reason why Musk wanted to use the company as the vehicle for the merger. Notably, Musk holds over 80% of SpaceX’s voting rights.
Following a merger, Musk would see “37% of equity and 56% of the voting rights in a combined entity,” Wang said, adding that “Tesla shareholders might get 0.7 SpaceX shares for each Tesla share,” which gives Musk a chance to take back the companies and reach the “engineering synergies that he’s hoping to reach.”
When asked if a merger would be supported by big SpaceX investors like the Saudi Arabian Sovereign Wealth Fund PIF, Wang said that they should. “Almost everything that Elon Musk touches gives you 10x scale, 100x scale, 1000x scale,” he said.
He added that investing in these companies gives the PIF advanced access to future technologies like moon-based factories, Brain-Chip Interface (BCI) implants from the likes of Neuralink, and more.
When pointing out possible barriers to the merger, the analyst said that there could be the threat of lawsuits from Tesla bears, who “bet against Elon and continue to have lost.”
He also said that challenges include future compute contracts for SpaceX and Tesla, as well as getting the “engineers together and then getting everyone together to have one common roadmap.”
Wang then said he sees SpaceX’s price target to be $300 as demand for its compute increases.
This could imply around 90% upside for SpaceX’s stock, based on its current share price of about $155 during pre-market trading on Thursday.
Wang noted that “long-term upside is in…telecommunications” for SpaceX.
He said that SpaceX’s entry into the communications sector will “cut into the margins of some of the biggest telecom players in the world.” Wang said Musk’s companies aimed to do things cheaply, citing the Robotaxi as an example.
“They’ve designed that for the lowest cost per mile kilometer that there is in the market,” he said, adding that the two-seater form factor, operational and manufacturing costs and more, meant that Tesla has “cost advantages that are engineered across the value chain.”
Talks of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX have been in the headlines, cemented further by the Tesla Roadster’s reveal, which uses SpaceX-sourced cold gas thruster technology to hover. Investor Ross Gerber, in the buildup to Tesla’s earnings report, believed that if a merger were to happen, now would be the time.
Meanwhile, investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC said SpaceX could make a $420/share stock-for-stock offer to Tesla, but warned that a merger could lead to dilution concerns for Tesla shareholders.
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