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    How Data Center Power Contract Will Impact Enerflex Stock Investors

    Simply Wall St·10/22/2026 09:33:05
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    • Enerflex announced that it has secured a major Engineered Systems mandate to supply over one gigawatt of low emission behind the meter natural gas power units for a large North American data center project, lifting its behind the meter generation backlog to more than 1.75 gigawatts with deliveries scheduled through 2028.
    • The decision to invest about $100 million into expanding Enerflex’s Engineered Systems facilities, paired with lifetime service opportunities such as ReliaCore Asset Performance Management, indicates that management is targeting higher capacity and more recurring revenue related to low emission power solutions for data centers.
    • We will now look at how Enerflex’s expanded behind the meter power backlog could reshape the company’s existing investment narrative.

    Scan beyond Enerflex and see how other power and data center plays are positioned with our curated list of 42 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks.

    Enerflex Investment Narrative Recap

    For Enerflex, the big picture you need to buy into is a future where natural gas infrastructure and power solutions remain busy enough to support its mix of Engineered Systems, long term contracts, and services. The expanded data center power backlog shores up near to medium term activity, but it does not remove exposure to margin normalization in ES or earnings volatility from project timing.

    Right now, the key swing factor is execution on that larger backlog while keeping returns on new ES investments in line with past expectations. The largest risk remains concentration in fossil fuel linked assets during an energy transition, paired with a relatively new management team and already thin net margins at 2.1% compared with 5.5% last year.

    The most relevant recent move is Enerflex’s plan to invest about $100 million into its Engineered Systems facilities to support this behind the meter backlog. That spend sits on top of an existing $1.2b overall backlog and is intended to lift ES revenue capacity while creating more attachment points for higher margin services on the same power units.

    For you as a shareholder, this creates a clear operational test. Management needs to bring these facilities online on time and on budget, convert the 1.75 gigawatt behind the meter pipeline into equipment plus ReliaCore and aftermarket work, and do it without further compressing already low profitability or overextending the balance sheet.

    Enerflex's analyst narrative points to revenues of $3.8b and earnings of $315.3 million by 2029, based on the provided forecast of annual revenue growth of 14.1% and an earnings increase of about six times from $53.0 million.

    Uncover why Enerflex's fair value indicates a 44% potential upside to its current price that could narrow quickly.

    TSX:EFX 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSX:EFX 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    One alternate view on Enerflex focuses heavily on execution risk. The most bearish analysts already modeled relatively flat revenue of about $2.7b and 2029 earnings of $204.1 million before this data center win. That is far below the wider group. Use this new backlog as a prompt to compare those expectations and decide which story feels more realistic to you.

    Explore 3 other Enerflex fair value estimates, including one that suggests it could be worth just CA$42.00!

    The Verdict Is Yours

    Don't just follow the ticker; dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

    Looking For More Ideas Beyond Enerflex?

    If this Enerflex update has you rethinking your watchlist, it can help to line it up against a broader mix of opportunities using the Simply Wall St Screener.