This Analyst Just Downgraded Chipotle Stock. Here's Why.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) shares are slipping on Wednesday after a senior TD Cowen analyst questioned whether the burrito chain’s sales recovery can meet Street expectations. In his report this morning, Andrew Charles downgraded CMG stock to “Hold” and lowered his price target to $32, which nevertheless signals potential upside of more than 10% from current levels. 

The bearish call is still significant given Chipotle stock has already been a disappointment in 2026, currently down about 25% versus the start of this year. 

What Made TD Cowen Downgrade Chipotle Stock?

Charles’s bearish research note centers on a “lackluster start to Q4.” Alternative data suggests the company’s October sales could fall short of the acceleration he had previously anticipated, despite relatively easy comps.

TD Cowen now expects Chipotle’s fourth-quarter same-store sales to come in up 1% only, versus a much higher 3.2% consensus. 

The firm doesn’t expect Chipotle’s recent efforts focused on increasing sales — new menu items, fresh marketing campaigns and value offers through Chipotle Rewards — to prove significant in Q4.

TD Cowen Trims Longer-Term Estimates for Chipotle

Charles also questions whether Chipotle Mexican Grill can deliver the same-store sales growth investors expect in 2027. 

Achieving consensus would require a bigger contribution from less established growth initiatives, including catering and its high-efficiency kitchen equipment, he told clients. 

TD Cowen expects CMG’s comparable sales growth to remain capped at 2.1% next year and 2.5% in 2028 — both below consensus estimates of 3.2% and 3.4%, respectively. 

Prioritizing customer traffic while relying less on price hikes could make those expectations harder to reach, the firm concluded. 

Note that Chipotle shares currently sit below their major moving averages (MAs), indicating bears remain firmly in control across multiple timeframes. 

Wall Street’s Consensus View on CMG Shares

Other Wall Street analysts haven’t thrown in the towel on CMG shares, though. The consensus rating on Chipotle Mexican Grill remains at “Moderate Buy,” with the mean price target of about $43 indicating potential upside of roughly 50% from here. 

On the date of publication, Wajeeh Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.