Crude Rebounds Toward $100 After Peace-Talk Reversal as Nat Gas Tests Its $2.90 Base

Energy Cross Asset Note

 Crude is recovering from Tuesday’s sharp reversal. An unconfirmed report that a US-Iran agreement was close knocked Brent down as much as 3.3% from a five-month high, before a diplomat involved in the talks called the report inaccurate. Brent is back above $110 this morning after Iranian state media said a supertanker hit a sea mine in Hormuz. The pace of attacks has escalated. Strikes near the strait have climbed to as many as 12 a week from two to four over the summer, and they are increasingly hitting engine rooms and causing heavier damage. Flows through Hormuz are holding near 12 million barrels a day but are down about 4 million from the recent peak, and early ship tracking shows non-Iranian crude leaving the Gulf at roughly 9 million barrels a day this month, well below official estimates. Inventories are tightening on both sides of the Atlantic. The IEA says observed global stocks were about half a billion barrels below prewar levels at the end of September, with on-land stocks at their lowest since at least 2016. In the US, an industry estimate showed a 4.9 million barrel crude draw, plus declines in gasoline and distillates. If the official EIA data confirms it today, it would be a third straight weekly decline. Washington is still pushing to bring energy costs down ahead of the midterms, and talks to end the conflict are ongoing. In nat gas, November fell for a third straight day Tuesday, partly on signs of a power dip at the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas that could reduce export demand, though a filing shows the plant has since restarted a train. US production is down from Monday’s peak, Permian output fell an estimated 5% on the day, and forecasts are shifting cooler, but above-normal temperatures are still expected across the East into early November. Overseas, European gas topped €90 for the first time since 2022 and Asian LNG is at its highest since 2022. For clients, crude’s whipsaw on a single headline shows how much of the price is riding on the talks, so defined risk matters on both sides. Nat gas is testing a base that has held since August while global gas prices climb, which makes the $2.90 area the most important level on the board this week. 

Crude Oil - The Setup

Crude Oil - The Technicals

CRUDE OIL (December, CLEZ26)

Current Price: $99.84, up $2.02 (2.07%) | Session high $99.88, low $97.91

Chart Setup
December is pressing back into Tuesday’s reversal. Tuesday ran to $101.35, right into the April front-month high at $101.40, then reversed on the peace-talk report. It traded down to $95.18 and settled at $97.82, below Monday’s close, giving it a wide outside range in both directions. This morning’s recovery has carried price back to the upper edge of the rising channel near $99.80, the same edge that capped Monday and turned Friday’s close back. Price is about $7.50 above the rising 20 day at $92.33, with the 50 day at $87.84. Three straight sessions have now probed above the channel and been pushed back inside.

Key Levels Above

1. $101.40 (April high on the front-month chart)
2. $101.35 (Tuesday high, high of the move)
3. $99.88 (today’s high)

Current Price: $99.84

Key Levels Below

1. $99.80 (upper edge of the channel)
2. $99.24 (Monday high)
3. $97.91 (today’s low, with Tuesday’s settle at $97.82)
4. $96.73 (last Thursday’s high)
5. $95.18 (Tuesday low)

Bias
Tuesday’s settle at $97.82 is the level to manage against. A settlement above the channel edge and today’s $99.88 high would be the first close outside the channel since Friday and puts $101.35 to $101.40 back in play. A settlement through $101.40 would put December in new territory on the front-month chart. A settlement back below $97.82 would confirm Tuesday’s reversal, opening $96.73 and then Tuesday’s $95.18 low. Sidelined traders have watched this channel edge reject three times in four sessions. Waiting for a settlement through $99.88, or a pullback that holds above $97.82, keeps risk defined rather than buying into the edge.

Seasonal Tendencies Update

(Updated on 10.19.26)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December Crude Oil futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y 

Natural Gas - The Setup

Natural Gas - The Technicals

NATURAL GAS (November, NGEX26)

Current Price: $2.92, down $0.05 (1.62%) | Session high $3.00, low $2.91

Chart Setup
November has fallen for a fourth straight session and is down 42 cents from the October 13 high at $3.33. Tuesday’s 9.5 cent drop settled price at $2.96, and this morning’s low of $2.91 matches the early October low, just a penny above the $2.90 triple bottom. That base has held every test since August and is now being tested for the seventh time. All four averages are overhead, with the 20 day at $3.12 rolling lower and still below the 100 day at $3.15. Today’s high of $3.00 stalled at the top of the base, which now acts as the first resistance from below. There is no prior support on the November chart below $2.90.

Key Levels Above

1. $3.15 (100 day, with the old range top at $3.15)
2. $3.12 (20 day)
3. $3.06 (50 day, with Monday’s settle at $3.06)
4. $3.00 (today’s high, top of the base)
5. $2.96 (Tuesday settle)

Current Price: $2.92

Key Levels Below

1. $2.91 (today’s low and early October low)
2. $2.90 (triple bottom)

Bias
$2.90 is the level to manage against, and it decides the whole formation. A settlement below it would undo the triple bottom that has held since August and put November at new contract lows, with no chart support underneath. Holding $2.90 and settling back above $2.96 would mark the seventh successful defense of the base and reopen $3.00. It likely takes a settlement above the 50 day at $3.06 to change the short-term trend. For sidelined traders, buying near $2.90 to $2.91 offers the tightest defined risk on the chart, with a stop just under. Waiting for a settlement back above $2.96 gives up a few cents for confirmation that the base held.

Seasonal Tendencies Update

(Updated on 10.19.26)

Below is a look at historical price averages for December Natural Gas futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30-year time frames over a 6-month time frame  (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results). Red = 5y, Green = 10y, Blue = 15y, Yellow = 20y, Violet = 30y 

Don't have an account yet? 

 Open an account with Blue Line Futures and you will gain access to our daily commodity commentary, free desktop and mobile trading platforms, a 24-hour trade desk, and more. Our online application takes about 5 minutes to complete. 
 

Follow us on X: @BlueLineFutures

Follow us on Facebook: Blue Line Futures

Subscribe to our YouTube channel: Blue Line Futures

 Questions about markets, trading, or opening an account? Reach out. 

 Email info@BlueLineFutures.com or call 312-278-0500 

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA's regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you, considering your financial condition. 

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

Hypothetical Performance Disclaimer

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer 
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71. This email may include information produced by third parties. Material not labelled Blue Line Futures LLC should be considered to be third-party, and is provided for informational purposes only. Third-party material is from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Blue Line Futures LLC.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

The information and opinions contained herein comes from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures LLC, 141 W. Jackson Blvd, Suite 2620, Chicago, IL 60604, 312-278-0500