Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRDN)

Market forces rained on the parade of Viridian Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRDN) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative. Surprisingly the share price has been buoyant, rising 23% to US$22.43 in the past 7 days. Whether the downgrade will have a negative impact on demand for shares is yet to be seen.

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After the downgrade, the consensus from Viridian Therapeutics' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$24m in 2026, which would reflect a painful 66% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$3.96 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$30m and losses of US$3.95 per share in 2026. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

Check out our latest analysis for Viridian Therapeutics

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 88% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 83% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 21% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Viridian Therapeutics' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Viridian Therapeutics' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Viridian Therapeutics going forwards.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have estimates - from multiple Viridian Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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