SpaceX, Cerebras IPOs Couldn't Keep the Private Market Boom Going, Forge Says

Space Exploration Technologies Corp (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Cerebras Systems (NASDAQ:CBRS) helped put the spotlight on the 2026 initial public offering market, but a broader recovery in private-market exits has yet to take hold.

The market began the year with a promising start as BitGo and EquipmentShare went public in January. Investors also anticipated a potential listing from AI chipmaker Cerebras, raising hopes that 2026 could build on the previous year’s IPO activity. But the recovery has struggled to gain traction, according to Forge Global’s fourth-quarter investment outlook. 

Forge said venture-backed IPO activity, excluding life sciences companies, remained underwhelming through the third quarter, leaving companies considering public listings in a more difficult market.

SpaceX’s June 12 IPO also failed to sustain broader investor interest. Buy-side indications of interest on Forge’s marketplace fell to 43.5% in September, a two-year low, after reaching a high of 74.3% in December 2024.

Forge said SpaceX had historically accounted for a significant share of secondary-market activity, though it cautioned that the reasons for the recent decline in buyer interest remain unclear. Similar weakness has appeared in venture-backed IPOs and in the premiums or discounts private companies command relative to their latest funding rounds.

AI Companies Dominate Private-Market Funding

While IPO momentum has faded, AI companies continue to absorb a large share of private-market capital.

AI companies accounted for 43% of capital raised in the third quarter, according to Forge. More broadly, 82% of capital raised so far in 2026, totaling $308 billion, had gone to AI companies.

That concentration is creating a tougher environment for businesses outside the sector as investors become more selective about where they deploy capital. Companies that raised money at elevated valuations during the 2021-2022 funding boom could face pressure to accept lower valuations when seeking fresh capital or exit opportunities.

Forge also highlighted macroeconomic headwinds, including rising long-term interest rates, growing national debt and the enormous cost of building AI infrastructure. The report estimated that AI infrastructure spending could reach $10.3 trillion by 2032, potentially adding pressure to capital markets.

M&A Gains Ground as IPOs Slow

With public listings offering a less reliable path to liquidity, mergers and acquisitions are becoming increasingly important for late-stage private companies and their investors.

The third quarter of 2026 recorded the second-highest number of M&A transactions involving mid- and late-stage companies since 2019, according to Forge. Since the first quarter of 2024, quarterly transaction counts have generally remained at or above the historical average of 13.

The report highlighted deals including Bending Spoons’ acquisition of Airtable and Miro’s acquisition of Sword Health’s digital health business as examples of transactions that could provide liquidity outside the IPO market.

Forge said the private market has historically adapted to shifts in capital allocation, even as volatile conditions create challenges for companies and investors. For businesses that raised money at peak valuations, acquisitions or discounted secondary transactions could offer alternative routes to returns.

The outlook suggests that even high-profile IPOs may not be enough to revive the broader exit market, leaving private companies increasingly reliant on acquisitions and secondary-market transactions to provide liquidity for investors.

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