Bank of America Securities: Commodity trends diverged, crude oil led, copper and gold showed fatigue

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Bank of America Securities technical strategists said that the commodity market is showing a divergent trend: the price of Brent crude oil has soared, pointing to multi-year high levels; copper and gold are showing fatigue under the pressure of a stronger dollar.

Bank of America Securities technical analyst Paul Ciana wrote in a report released on Monday that crude oil is still the most outstanding variety in the entire commodity sector. The multi-cycle chart pattern shows that the third wave of upward trend is unfolding.

Bank of America Securities believes that as long as the oil price remains above 94 US dollars, its bullish stance will remain unchanged. Analysts pointed out that if the weekly line closes above $110, it will open the door to the target range of $119.98 to $122.14, and may even reach $129 or higher.

At the same time, it is difficult for industrial metals and precious metals to maintain their upward momentum. As the price of copper climbs to a new high, it is forming an ascending wedge top pattern, which is accompanied by a divergence between TD sequence exhaustion signals and oscillation indicators. If it falls below the key support level of $13,926, the downside risk will increase and may point to $13,000 or even $11,700. If the copper miner ETF (COPX) falls below the 50-week moving average of about $80, it could trigger a double top pattern.

Gold is also in an adjustment phase. Bank of America Securities believes that this round of adjustments is still insufficient in terms of time and depth to fully absorb its gains over the years. Maintaining the low of $3,943 during the year may eventually lay the foundation for a double bottom in 2027; however, there is still a risk of a further decline towards $3,700 in the current adjustment.

The dollar's rebound has further increased the pressure on metals. The US dollar index recently broke through 102.86 and hit an 18-month high. Technical forecasts show that as long as the uptrend support level around 99.50 remains stable, the US dollar index is expected to rise further to the 104.59 to 105 range.