BofA Notes 'Maintenance Heavy' Fiscal Q1 for BHP; Estimates Up

01:44 AM EDT, 10/21/2026 (MT Newswires) -- BofA Global Research raised its earnings forecasts for BHP Group (BHP.L, BHG.JO), noting the mining giant's "maintenance heavy" fiscal first quarter. "SepQ started slowly with CuEq production of 839kt down 11% QoQ but up 11% YoY. Copper production of 400.7kt (-91kt yoy) i) Escondida down 48kt QoQ on lower grades as flagged + weather i.e. guidance is for 200ktpa less yoy on grade. ii) Copper SA impacted by pre-flagged belt rip plus anode build Iron ore: WAIO (100%) in line with expectations at 71.9Mt (-4% QoQ) with SepQ setting records at the mine and port. The rebuild of CD4 had a 1.4Mt impact which will also impact Q2. FY guidance is unchanged noting copper annualizing below the bottom end. Realized pricing benefited from provisional pricing tailwinds at US$7lb for copper vs cons US$6.25/lb, iron ore on a FOB basis US$76.27/wmt implying 102% of the Platts 61% index," according to a Tuesday note. Against this backdrop, the research firm nudged up its EBITDA projections for fiscal 2027 through 2028 and lifted its 2027 EPS forecast to $4.76 from $4.71. Analysts also reiterated their buy rating on BHP, viewing the upcoming November Olympic Dam site visit as a catalyst to drive medium-term consensus copper expectations higher. "We see the site visit as a key catalyst for consensus to move to BHP's targets i.e. targets +380ktpa refined cu in 2035 from OD vs consensus ~240kt," the note said. BofA has a price objective of AU$68 on the stock.