Wedbush Sings Too Much AMD (AMD.US): Server CPU Carrying the Flag 2027 Guidelines Are Ready to Be Tested

The Zhitong Finance App learned that AMD (AMD.US) will announce the results for the third quarter of the 2026 fiscal year on November 3. Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson gave a judgment framework in his latest outlook: This quarter's numbers themselves are not necessarily the biggest variable; the strength of server CPUs determines short-term upward space, and management's statement on 2027 or stock price pricing anchors. Bryson gave AMD an “outperforming market” rating, with a target price of $600.

Server CPUs are the most likely source of short-term upgrades

In his report to clients, Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson wrote: “AMD's fiscal quarter revenue is about US$13 billion ± 300 million (up about 13% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year increase), with gross margin of about 56%. Our forecasts (US$13.019 billion, 56.0%, and US$1.93 per share) are basically in the middle of the guidance range, slightly below market consensus (US$13.079 billion, 55.9%, and US$1.95 per share).

Management raised the server business outlook for the second half of the year to a year-on-year increase of more than 80%. However, given that demand for computing power associated with proxy AI continues to exceed supply, we believe server CPUs are the most likely source of upside surprises compared to market consensus and our predictions. Notably, stronger demand in this area may also drive improvements in gross margins.”

Helios order visibility and execution risk coexist 2027 guidelines are more important

If server CPUs decide “whether they can surpass this quarter,” the Helios rack and Mi450's climb will determine “whether the 2027 doubling guidelines can be trusted.”

AMD's flagship AI product, Helios/Mi450, began initial shipments at the end of the third quarter. Larger scale mass production began in the fourth quarter, and further accelerated in the first half of 2027. Management stated that the customer's delivery progress was “ahead of the initial forecast,” and the list of partners has been extended from OpenAI, Meta, and Anthropic's three core anchor customers.

The most binding anchor on the order side is Anthropic: the strategic partnership announced in July plans to deploy up to 2 gigawatts of Mi450 series GPUs in the Helios rack level solution. The first batch of 1 gigawatt is expected to launch in the first half of 2027. AMD also promised a strategic equity investment of up to 5 billion US dollars in Anthropic.

Bryson added, “Our model predicts revenue for the fourth fiscal quarter of US$15.788 billion (up 21% month-on-month) and earnings of $2.30 per share, while the market consensus is around US$16.2 billion and US$2.65. While our earnings per share forecast falls short of consensus, we would also like to point out that we may have underestimated Helios shipments because we have yet to obtain reliable data points to update our expectations.

We look forward to management reaffirming our previous forecast of more than doubling data center revenue in 2027 (although the base figure may rise due to higher 2026), update Helios shipment progress (management has indicated that it is tracking better than the initial forecast), and Anthropic plans to deploy up to 2 gigawatts of Mi450 series GPUs (the first batch of 1 gigawatt will be launched in the first half of 2027).”

Looking further, Bryson said that since AMD's stock price has risen sharply during the year, the company's guidance and comments on 2027 may be even more important.