Can this Canadian gold stock produce 1 million ounces a year?

Investing in mining stocks can be risky.

The business revolves around digging holes in the hope of finding valuable resources. In some cases, before any real production has ever taken place.

As such, it isn’t a surprise to hear of lofty ambitions.

The question for investors is not whether those ambitions are impressive, but whether they are realistic.

A gold mine has a finite life and only so much ore available.

So, to reach the goals a mining stock sets, it isn’t just a question of whether gold or another ore is there, but whether they can extract it efficiently, expand production and, if they wish to grow, find a way to do it faster as well as find new deposits.

It is this challenge that Aris Mining Company (TSX:ARIS) is currently facing as it looks to produce up to one million ounces of gold annually.

Headquartered in Canada, it is increasingly looking at South America as the solution.

The two gold mines laying the foundation

Unlike some mining companies that are completely focused on exploration, Aris already has two mines that are actually producing.

It currently operates two mines in Colombia.

Segovia, located in the Antioquia region, is estimated to produce between 265,000 and 300,000 ounces of gold in 2026. With a steady-state target of 300,000 ounces. Segovia is one of the highest-grade gold mines in the world, with measured and indicated resources averaging 15.3g/t and reserves averaging 10.7g/t.

Its Marmato mine in the Caldas region is predicted to produce between 35,000 and 50,000 ounces of gold in 2026, but the company believes it could, when expanded, produce as many as 200,000 ounces annually.

If the steady-state forecasts are hit, it would mean a doubling of annual gold production.

Having mines that are already producing is an advantage for any miner, as it allows the company to generate cash while it undergoes its exploration activities elsewhere.

How Aris Mining plans to double its ambition

On top of its two production mines, Aris continues to explore and lay the groundwork for two more mines.

Soto Norte is also located in Colombia and is currently in the process of getting the necessary permits. Assuming it is successful, once operational, Aris estimates it could produce as much as 263,000 ounces of gold every year as early as its second year of operation.

Toroparu sees Aris Mining leave Colombia and head to Guyana. A preliminary economic assessment has already been completed, with a pre-feasibility study expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. Aris believes it could produce an average of 235,000 ounces per year over a mine life of more than 20 years.

When added to its two mines already in production, this would allow Aris to achieve its goal of 1 million ounces of gold produced annually.

What investors will be watching next

Of course, as is the case in mining, there are no guarantees that it will achieve its goal.

But the combination of two mines already in production, along with two mines that could add to it in the future is makes for an interesting combination as it proves its ability to successfully extract gold once a mine is up and running and provides real cash flow.

With future production from its Soto Norte and Toroparu mines a key part of the investment thesis, many investors will likely be watching the progress it makes on the necessary feasibility studies and permit process, followed by the development of the mine along with any signs of construction delays and expenses.

In the meantime, investors will be hoping that its production mines can continue to be ramped up to the steady-state goals that underpin the current strength of the company.

It is not a guaranteed outcome. Mining never is. But Aris at least has a plan for what it wants to be and how it expects to get there, and some history that it might be capable of doing it.

Learn more about Aris Mining

What is Aris Mining?

Aris Mining Company (TSX:ARIS) is a Canadian-headquartered gold miner with operations focused on South America. It currently runs two producing gold mines in Colombia, Segovia and Marmato, and is developing two further projects, Soto Norte in Colombia and Toroparu in Guyana.

What is Aris Mining’s gold production target?

Aris Mining’s longer-term goal is about one million ounces of gold a year. To get there, it plans to expand Segovia and Marmato to a combined 500,000 ounces a year, then bring Soto Norte and Toroparu into production.

How much gold does Aris Mining expect to produce in 2026?

Aris Mining’s 2026 guidance is 300,000 to 350,000 ounces of gold. Segovia is expected to produce 265,000 to 300,000 ounces and Marmato 35,000 to 50,000 ounces. Production is weighted to the second half of the year, when Marmato’s new processing plant comes online.

How could Aris Mining double its gold production?

Segovia is targeting about 300,000oz/yr at steady state. An expanded Marmato is expected to reach about 200,000 ounces a year once its new bulk mine and processing plant ramp up. Together, that would take production to around 500,000 ounces, roughly double the 257,000 ounces the two mines produced in 2025.

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