Bulls Are Back in Business as Cattle Prices Hit Multi-Week Highs

December live cattle (LEZ26) futures on Friday hit a nine-week high and for the week gained $1.30. November feeder cattle (GFX26) futures hit a three-month high Friday and for the week lost a nickel. The live cattle futures market saw technical buying to end the trading week, including a technically bullish weekly high close that sets the market up for some follow-through buying early this week. Feeder futures paused Friday. Near-term price uptrends are firmly in place on the daily bar charts, which have the cattle market bulls in technical control. 

Modestly higher cash cattle trade late last week also supported buying interest in live cattle futures. The USDA at midday Friday reported moderately active cash cattle trading late last week, with steers averaging $222.37 and heifers $220.91. The agency reported average cash cattle trading the week prior at $220.14. 

The USDA on Friday morning also reported upbeat U.S. beef export sales of 19,800 metric tons (MT) for the 2026 marketing year, up 52% from the previous week and up 55% from the prior 4-week average. U.S. beef exports of 12,900 MT were up 8% from the previous week and 11% higher than the prior 4-week average.

The October USDA supply and demand report’s surprise increase in the U.S. corn production forecast and higher stockpiles have sent corn futures prices sharply lower, which is improving feedlot margins and lifting feeder cattle prices. Live cattle futures are being boosted by expectations for tighter fed cattle supplies into next year. 

Overall supply and demand fundamentals remain supportive for cattle futures. Cattle futures markets have been supported by tighter supplies of market-ready animals and steady packer demand. Boxed beef prices have been supported by retailers stocking up ahead of seasonal promotions. Limited cattle placements in recent months and improved pasture conditions have also slowed the flow of cattle into feedlots.

On the negative side for cattle futures markets, rising beef imports — up roughly 15% year-over-year amid temporary tariff relief — are likely somewhat capping upside price potential. Also, cattle futures prices trading at a premium to the cash cattle market have limited gains in futures.

Lean Hog Futures Remain Trapped in a Downtrend

December lean hog (HEZ26) futures on Friday rose $0.35 to $66.925 but for the week were down 90 cents. The hog futures market on Friday saw tepid short covering after hitting a contract low in December futures last Thursday. Technicals remain firmly bearish as futures prices remain in a downtrend on the daily bar chart, from the July high.

The CME cash hog index and cash hog prices also continue to trend down. The latest CME lean hog index is down 66 cents to $75.09. Today’s projected CME index price is down another 90 cents at $74.19. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $70.60. 

Fundamental and technical headwinds are keeping lean hog futures bears in the driver’s seat. Heavy big fund traders’ short futures positions and ongoing technical selling have reinforced the decline in lean hog futures.  

The primary fundamental price pressure on lean hog futures is weaker pork demand, as pork cutout value continues to hover around multi-year lows. Although U.S. hog supplies are not overly burdensome, the soft domestic demand continues to outweigh supply-side support and keeps the market on the defensive. Ample frozen U.S. pork stocks and cheaper alternative proteins continue to overshadow pork at the meat counter. Heavier carcass weights have offset much of the year-over-year decline in hog inventories. 

A sustained recovery in cash hogs and futures depends on better evidence that smaller supplies are tightening pork production. Upcoming holiday demand for hams from grocers may be supportive for lean hog futures.

On the positive side for lean hog futures, the USDA on Friday reported U.S. pork export sales of 36,300 MT for 2026 were up 35% from the previous week and up 14% from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 32,200 MT were down 2% from the previous week, but up 1% from the prior 4-week average.

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On the date of publication, Jim Wyckoff did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.