XRP Bottom 'Is In, Analyst Says—So Why Did ETF Inflows Stop?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) ETFs snapped a 13-week inflow streak last week, even as one analyst says on-chain data points to a bottom forming near $1.25.

Why One Analyst Calls $1.25 the Bottom

Widely-followed cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez posted on X that transaction volume on the XRP Ledger exploded as prices hovered near $1.25 support, with the total dollar value of coins transferred on-chain skyrocketing to $49.70 billion. 

He said that surge in on-chain activity around such a critical level suggests $1.25 could mark the bottom, with XRP potentially rallying toward $2 as long as that support holds.

Ali Charts also flagged $1.25 as the level needed to complete the right shoulder of a potential inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the three-day chart. 

A sustained close above $1.56 would open the path toward $2, while losing $1.25 shifts the downside target to $1.

Why Exchange Data Tells a More Cautious Story

CryptoQuant data showed XRP reserves across all exchanges hit 11.81 billion on Oct. 17, the 99th percentile of the past year. 

Over the same stretch, several signals pointed to leverage unwinding rather than fresh positioning:

• Binance open interest: fell 15.8% from Oct. 4 to Oct.17
• Long liquidations: totaled $25.7 million over Oct. 7-8, the largest two-day cluster in two weeks
• Funding rate: turned negative on 6 of the last 11 days
• Whale transaction volume: fell 44% week over week

CryptoQuant said this combination, high exchange balances paired with fading whale activity, has historically preceded range-bound trading rather than a clean breakout.

Why ETF Investors Pulled Back Despite the Bullish Chart Calls

SoSoValue data showed that XRP spot ETFs posted $1.84 million in net outflows for the week ended Oct. 16, snapping a 13-week streak of inflows that included $11.31 million the week before. 

Total net assets fell to $1.47 billion from $1.57 billion, while weekly trading volume dropped to $123.01 million from $200.84 million. 

Separately, analyst EGRAG CRYPTO posted on X that a 77-day fractal pattern he’s tracked for months is still playing out, pointing to a potential move toward $1.80 to $2 over the next one to two months, followed by a correction toward $1.50 before a larger leg higher.

He flagged $7 to $9 as a realistic cycle-top target rather than more extreme figures sometimes floated by others, while cautioning that fractal patterns serve as a roadmap rather than a guarantee.

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