Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) Tests Its Recovery Story While Fair Value Still Looks Higher

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (BXMT) drew fresh investor attention after recent performance data showed the share price at US$10.53 on 17 October 2026, with returns lower over the past month and the past three months.

That recent weakness extends a much tougher run for Blackstone Mortgage Trust, with the share price down 20.65% over the past month and 37.28% over three months. The 1 year total shareholder return has declined 33.93%, which signals fading momentum rather than a short blip.

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Blackstone Mortgage Trust now trades significantly below the average analyst price target of US$16.86 after a steep share price slide. Does that gap reflect genuine undervaluation, or a reset that still has further to run?

Most Popular Narrative: 50% Undervalued

On the most followed view, Blackstone Mortgage Trust screens as materially undervalued, with a fair value estimate of $21 against the recent close at $10.53. This puts the spotlight on what would need to go right to close that gap.

The company is focusing on portfolio turnover through repayments and redeployment into high-quality new credit opportunities, which is expected to enhance future earnings by improving the overall credit composition and potentially increasing revenue from new investments. Resolution of impaired loans is expected to be a catalyst for future growth by reducing the non-performing assets and allowing the company to recapture earnings potential, thereby potentially increasing net margins as capital is redeployed into more productive investments.

See why 9 investors see Blackstone Mortgage Trust as 50% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $21 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, the narrative around Blackstone Mortgage Trust only holds if impaired loans are worked through efficiently and tariff or macro shocks do not further pressure real estate values.

Find out about the key risks to this Blackstone Mortgage Trust narrative.

Another View on Blackstone Mortgage Trust's Valuation

The fair value story for Blackstone Mortgage Trust looks different once the current P/E is brought into focus. BXMT trades on a P/E of 116.3x, while the US Mortgage REITs group is closer to 7.7x and the fair ratio is 37x. That gap points to meaningful valuation risk if sentiment or assumptions shift.

Investors weighing those multiples against the earlier fair value estimate may want to see what the numbers imply in detail by reviewing the See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown..

Next Steps

With sentiment clearly divided on Blackstone Mortgage Trust, use that tension as a prompt to move quickly, review the latest data, and decide where you stand. To weigh both sides of the debate, start with the 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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