Dow Futures Rise Despite 'Black Monday' Calls: Market Commentator Says Selloff Worries Are 'Overdone'

U.S. stock futures were higher late Sunday, signaling a bounce from Friday’s slide in the Nasdaq Composite, even as calls for a Black Monday crash were trending.

The Fear Is ‘Overdone’

The Kobeissi Letter took the opposite approach to the calls for a Black Monday crash, posting on X a chart that tracks every time the term has trended since May 2025.

Over that stretch, the S&P 500 has climbed from about 5,500 to around 7,650, and the market commentator called the selloff worries “overdone.”

Well, this post struck a nerve.

Calls for a "Black Monday" stock market crash are trending again. Last night, we took the opposite view.

As with every market prediction we make, there are thousands of people urging others to "fade" us.

But take a look at the chart below. It… https://t.co/BjuFfm8asq pic.twitter.com/iD5twqce92

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 18, 2026

BREAKING: US stock market futures open higher despite calls for a "Black Monday" market crash.

1. S&P 500: +0.2%
2. Nasdaq 100: +0.2%
3. Dow Jones: +0.1%
4. WTI Crude: -0.6%
5. Brent: -0.5%
6. Natural Gas: -2.1%

We continue to believe market selloff worries are overdone.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 18, 2026

In an analysis published last week, the firm argued that the S&P 500 is in a “stealth” bear market “within a bull market.”

It said that 84% of the index’s stocks trade at least 10% below their record highs, while just 10 stocks have driven 70% of its gain since the March low.

Without the Iran war, the index could, it contends, be above 9,000.

Futures Move Higher

S&P 500 futures rose 0.72% to 7,760 on Sunday, after the index closed 1.09% lower at 7,659.44 on Friday. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.2% to 29,743 and Dow futures added 0.44% to 52,446.

On Friday, the Nasdaq Composite closed 2.14% lower at 26,140.03, and the Dow fell 0.34%.

Memory stocks were under pressure last week with investors balancing strong AI-driven demand against rising interest rates, Chinese competition and uncertainty over how long supply shortages will last.

In Asia, South Korea’s benchmark index KOSPI rose 0.61%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.88%.

Recession Odds Split

Traders on the Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket have priced in a 7% chance of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026, with a 35% chance of a recession by the end of 2027.

Rosenberg Research founder David Rosenberg said last week that he sees better-than-even odds of a recession within a year, calling the market a bubble driven by investor behavior.

BlackRock Inc. CEO Larry Fink cautioned that local moratoriums on data center construction could tip the U.S. economy into a recession by disrupting the capital spending driving growth.

Price Action: The State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) closed 1.11% lower on Friday at $763.25 and was down 0.83% to $769.62 in overnight hours. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) fell 2.50% to $709.80 and lost 0.27% to $707.87 in extended trading.

The State Street ETF has a Momentum score in the 73rd percentile and a positive price trend across the short, medium, and long term, according to Benzinga Edge rankings.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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