Is Skip Partnership Altering The Investment Case For Instacart (CART)?

• Skip and Instacart announced a partnership in early October 2026 that links Skip's app to Instacart's grocery and retail marketplace, and gives Instacart users access to Skip's network of more than 50,000 restaurant partners across Canada.
• The tie-up deepens Maplebear's presence in Canadian households by combining Instacart's grocery assortment and Skip's restaurant delivery into a single cross-access experience for each user base.
• We will now look at how Maplebear's investment narrative could be influenced by this broader Canadian reach through the Skip integration.

See how Maplebear’s Instacart and Skip partnership fits into a broader delivery theme by comparing it with other platform plays in our hand picked 20 high quality undiscovered gems.

Maplebear Investment Narrative Recap

To own Maplebear, you need to believe the shift to digital grocery and same day delivery keeps pulling more weekly spend onto Instacart’s rails and that its tech stack can support that volume efficiently. The Skip partnership in Canada touches that core belief but does not rewrite it. The near term swing factor still looks like order frequency and ad demand rather than a single distribution deal.

The biggest operational risk still sits around costs and competition. Higher shopper and courier expenses, regulatory changes for gig workers, or retailer led delivery alternatives could all squeeze margins. If digital grocery growth slows or users lean back toward in store shopping, the Skip tie up may soften that risk at the edges, but it does not remove it.

The Instacart Skip arrangement is one of the clearer proof points of Maplebear’s partnership heavy approach. Instacart plugs its grocery and essentials marketplace into Skip, while importing Skip’s 50,000 plus restaurant partners into its own app. For you as a shareholder, this speaks directly to the catalyst around deeper omnichannel integrations and more touchpoints per household.

On the flip side, that same cross access model leans on two sets of gig workers and fee structures. Rising labor costs or stricter rules on gig work would not just hit Instacart’s own fulfillment model; they could also change the economics of Skip deliveries that run through the Instacart experience. The opportunity is more engagement; the risk is complexity and thinner margins if costs rise faster than basket economics improve.

What The Maplebear Forecasts Assume

Maplebear's narrative projects forecast revenue of US$5.3b and earnings of US$845.8m by 2029. This setup assumes revenue growth of 9.9% per year and an earnings increase of US$373.8m from current earnings of US$472.0m.

Analysts are effectively baking in a world where Instacart keeps adding volume and squeezes more profit out of each order. The forecast calls for annual revenue expansion of 9.9% over the next three years, paired with profit margins stepping up from 11.8% today to 15.9% by 2029. For investors, that combination of higher sales and wider margins is what underpins the move in earnings from US$472.0m today to a consensus US$845.8m.

That earnings bridge matters. It represents roughly US$373.8m of extra profit that analysts want to see in the income statement by 2029, with a spread of views from US$586.7m at the low end to US$1.0b at the high end. The Skip relationship in Canada feeds into this story by giving Maplebear one more way to capture grocery and restaurant spending, although the analyst models still hinge more on Instacart's overall execution than on any single partner.

On valuation, the analyst framework ties these operating assumptions to a 2029 scenario where Maplebear earns US$845.8m on US$5.3b of revenue and trades on a P/E of 15.8x. That multiple would be lower than both the current 21.6x on Maplebear stock and the 18.0x cited for the broader US consumer retailing group. In other words, the targets assume not just higher earnings but also a cheaper valuation multiple than today once you get out to 2029.

Price targets sit on top of that earnings path. The consensus sits at US$58.14, with the most optimistic analyst at US$77.00 and the most cautious at US$45.00. Against a recent share price of US$44.11, the midpoint implies 24.1% upside, but the range of targets shows how differently analysts are weighing execution risk, competition, and the durability of online grocery habits.

The Skip integration fits into this bigger picture as one possible way to support that 9.9% revenue growth profile and the margin lift that takes profit from US$472.0m to US$845.8m. It potentially broadens the funnel of orders per household and may create extra advertising or cross-sell opportunities. It also adds another layer of partners, labor pools, and fee structures that could affect how easily Maplebear delivers on those 2029 earnings expectations if costs or regulation move in an unfriendly direction.

Discover how Maplebear's fair value indicates a 17% potential upside to its current price that may not be available for long.

Exploring Other Perspectives

One alternate view says thinner unit economics are the bigger swing factor for Maplebear. Bearish analysts, who saw 2029 revenue closer to US$4.7b and earnings around US$789.1m before this Skip news, effectively priced in softer order growth. You can treat the new Canadian tie up as a live test of that more cautious story and explore which assumptions you find more convincing.

Explore another Maplebear fair value estimate, including one that suggests it could be worth just $58.14.

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Maplebear research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• See our latest analysis for Maplebear. The report includes a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual, the Snowflake, making it easy to evaluate Maplebear's overall financial health at a glance.

Looking For More Maplebear-Style Investment Ideas?

If the Maplebear story has sharpened your thinking on platforms, margins, and long run earnings potential, it is a good moment to widen the lens and scan for other companies that fit your criteria using the Simply Wall St Screener.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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