Kraken Robotics Stock in 3 Years: Boom, Bust, or Quietly Crushing It?

Kraken Robotics (OTC: KRKNF) is positioning itself as a leading provider of technologies supporting crewless underwater vehicles, subsea monitoring, and other maritime applications. The company is a leader in battery technologies for underwater drones and seabed mapping, and has credible offerings in other categories that could be crucial for maritime defense, offshore energy projects, and seafloor communications. On the other hand, these strengths haven't prevented its stock from getting hit with big sell-offs this year.

As of this writing, Kraken stock is down 38% across 2026's trading. The company's share price is also down roughly 62% from the lifetime high that it reached in March. Does the stock still have a chance to be a big winner over the next three years?

Kraken Robotics is down, but not out

To get a read on the prospects for Kraken Robotics stock, it's helpful to first understand why the company's share price has seen such a steep drawdown after hitting its lifetime peak earlier this year. For starters, 2026 has been a tough year for valuation performance among defense tech companies. Small-cap and mid-cap plays without significant exposure to the artificial intelligence (AI) trade have generally faced valuation pressures, and companies in the formerly high-flying defense-tech category have seen particularly pronounced pullbacks.

Making matters worse, Kraken's growth across the first half of the year has been unimpressive for a company with its valuation profile. The company's revenue increased just 4% year over year in the second quarter, while the Covelya Group business it acquired in a deal valued at 615 million Canadian dollars saw revenue decline by roughly 5%. Further intensifying the bearish backdrop, Kraken hasn't provided any order announcements or other material business updates since publishing its Q2 results near the end of August.

But while Kraken's recent performance has been undeniably disappointing, I still think there's a good chance that the stock will deliver booming performance over the next three years. There's admittedly a significant amount of uncertainty in modeling the business's performance outlook, but trends related to the evolution of subsea drones for defense and technologies for offshore energy projects and other applications suggest a promising backdrop.

As just one example, manufacturing for Anduril's Dive-LD, Dive-XL, and Ghost Shark unmanned underwater vehicles is set to ramp up dramatically over the next few years. While there's recently been some speculation that Anduril is moving to shift its subsea battery sourcing in-house, these underwater drones have previously relied on Kraken's battery tech -- and the nature of military procurement and operational scaling makes me think it's unlikely that Kraken is on track to be displaced.

Between macroeconomic factors, rotation trends that haven't favored defense tech, and limited visibility on the business's performance outlook, Kraken remains a risky stock. On the other hand, the company is operating at the pick-and-shovel intersection of some intriguing growth trends -- and I think the risk-reward profile looks very favorable right now.

Keith Noonan has positions in Kraken Robotics. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Kraken Robotics. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.