Missed Hexagon's Run? What Holders Had To Believe

If Hexagon sat on your watchlist instead of in your account, the move this year may feel like a missed shot. For Hexagon shareholders, the return from the start of the year was 20.8%, including dividends. That result arrived alongside fresh acquisitions and the Octave spin off, events that only became clear as 2026 unfolded. Back on 1 January, could a focus on recurring software and margin expansion have helped you judge Hexagon’s potential differently?

This theme extends beyond Hexagon. See which of 92 robotics and automation stocks may still merit a closer look.

The Argument You Would Have Been Weighing Up On Hexagon

The shares cost SEK108 at the start of the period, and investors in Hexagon had to decide which story about the business to trust.

On the optimistic side, one published view put Fair Value at SEK115. This was a rough guide to what that narrative thought the shares were worth, based on assumptions like revenue growth of 5.0% and profit margins reaching 20.6% as recurring software expanded.

A more cautious narrative pointed to a Fair Value of SEK88.7 and stressed risks such as tighter regulation and deglobalization, which were expected to pressure Hexagon's automation prospects and earnings quality.

What The Results Changed For The Hexagon Thesis

Hexagon’s Q2 2026 report showed revenue of €1,050.2m versus €1,009.8m a year earlier, with net income rising from €170.2m to €248.2m and net margin lifting from 16.9% to 23.6%. That margin outcome came in ahead of both the bullish and bearish margin assumptions and provided more support to the optimistic narrative than to the cautious one.

The lesson to take elsewhere is simple. When a story rests on expanding software and service profitability, track net margin alongside sales, then ask whether acquisitions and spin offs are actually lifting that figure over time.

What Hexagon's Price Already Assumes Today

Hexagon now trades at SEK105, a touch below where it started the year even though the total return from the start of the year is 20.8%. The selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits below the current price, which frames today’s level as demanding for a cautious reader.

The Narrative argues that hardware-heavier sales, rising tax rates and robotics spending could strain profitability even if revenue holds up. Anyone paying SEK105 is effectively assuming Hexagon can keep margins resilient while absorbing these pressures. The open question is how that robotics and hardware mix risk plays into the outcome.

"While Hexagon highlights the completed refocus on precision measurement, positioning and autonomy as a cleaner platform for growth, the shift towards a more hardware-intensive mix with strong sensor sales keeps exposing gross margins to input cost, freight and FX volatility. This can constrain future EBIT margin progression even if revenue holds up."

One Narrative has put a figure on that disagreement. → See the Narrative with its lower Fair Value, assumptions and all

Looking Past Hexagon's Software Story

Hexagon asks you to think about recurring software and autonomy. That focus naturally raises another question: where else are users paying for tightly linked devices and digital services?

One large consumer platform is pushing an AI centric personal hub. The aim is to bind phones, wearables, media and payments into a single experience.

To make that vision work, it leans on custom chips and on device intelligence. Those tools are meant to support new subscription features and premium hardware tiers.

Health tracking and smart home controls deepen the same pattern. Everyday habits slide into paid services that sit on top of each device.

If that model keeps spreading, software style thinking may matter even more beyond Hexagon’s industrial niche.

That argument has a Narrative and a number behind it. → See the company one Narrative values 18% above its price

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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