What SES AI Bears Saw Before A 63% Drop

If you only glanced at the headlines about SES AI’s revenue jump and narrower losses, the story might look straightforwardly upbeat. Holding SES AI from the start of the year would have meant a 62.8% loss, including dividends. That gap between improving reported results and deep shareholder damage raises a harder question: If you were weighing an investment decision on 2026-01-01, what signals were already on record that this kind of drawdown was a live risk?

SES AI is not the only name tied to this theme. Zero in on 32 best rare earth metal stocks and compare how each one is priced.

The Two SES AI Stories Investors Had To Choose Between

The shares cost US$1.8 at the start of the period, and anyone looking at SES AI then was really choosing between two believable stories rather than a single obvious script.

On the upbeat side, the bullish view argued that advanced battery demand tied to EV and decarbonization trends could support a Fair Value of US$2, essentially a price implied by optimistic assumptions. That narrative leaned on projected revenue growth of 176.1% a year and profit margins eventually reaching 13.6%.

The more cautious take put Fair Value at US$1.33 based on a different set of expectations. In that version, earnings were still forecast to improve, yet investors had to factor in heavy reliance on a few automotive partners as a real customer concentration risk.

What The Evidence Around SES AI Actually Tested

The biggest development was SES AI reaffirming 2026 revenue guidance of US$30 million to US$35 million while reporting Q2 2026 revenue of US$5.072 million and a smaller net loss than a year earlier. That supported parts of the bullish story on demand and sales. Securities class action filings over alleged revenue misstatements pulled hard in the opposite direction. Overall, the evidence cut both ways.

The hinge assumption here was not just growth, but its quality. When you test another stock, track whether rising sales and narrowing losses are backed by clean disclosures and repeatable customers rather than disputed revenue recognition.

What SES AI’s Lower Price Asks You To Believe Today

SES AI now trades at US$0.71, and the selected Narrative’s Fair Value sits above that quote based on its own assumptions rather than a settled truth about worth.

The Narrative leans on SES AI turning ESS, NDAA compliant drone cells and Molecular Universe into steadier, higher margin revenue. A buyer today would be testing whether that mix can eventually cover current fixed costs and legal overhang.

"The main requirement is for SES AI to scale its ESS, NDAA-compliant drone cells, and Molecular Universe platform into durable, higher-margin revenue that offsets legacy EV headwinds. The current numbers suggest the share price is already reflecting a cautious scenario in which SES AI converts improving gross margins, cost cuts, and a capital-light model into a more self-sustaining business over time."

Not everyone reads the same price the same way. → See the higher figure this Narrative lands on, and how it gets there

Which Company Could Surprise You Next?

This company's disappointment is already part of the story. Your next idea could come from looking where the price and the possibilities still seem far apart. Here are three companies priced below our estimates.

• Company 1 - 41% below our estimate - uses specialty deposit verticals and a rebuilt payments platform to deepen fee income streams.
• Company 2 - 46% below our estimate - integrates an acquired bank to add low cost deposits and extend an interest sensitive balance sheet.
• Company 3 - 43% below our estimate - expands premium teahouses while a huge membership program pushes repeat purchases and ticket sizes.

Three companies from the same screener. Open the full list of 33 companies trading below our fair value estimates →

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com