Analyst Sees TSLA-SPCX Merger Coming By December, but Prediction Markets Aren’t Buying It

Talks of a merger between Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), both led by trillionaire Elon Musk, gained traction after a Barclays analyst predicted the companies could join hands as early as December this year.

Dan Levy Bullish on TSLA-SCPX Merger

According to a report by Bloomberg on Wednesday, Barclays analyst Dan Levy said a Tesla-SpaceX deal could be announced before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, potentially by early December. The merger would be aimed at “vertical integration” of AI technology.

However, the merger timeline, the analyst predicts, could “challenge merger approval” if it slips into “October or perhaps even until early November,” Levy said.

He added that 11% of outstanding votes during Tesla’s 2025 Annual General Meeting were ‘broker non-votes’ that were “effectively counted as against votes” and that Tesla could attempt to increase shareholder participation.

The analyst’s comments could point to investors in both companies not receiving an adequate amount of time to review the proposal and weigh the pros and cons of such a merger.

What Does More Voting Control Look Like?

Notably, Musk has expressed his desire to hold 25% voting rights in the electric automaker, with a June 2026 filing showing Musk retains 19.9% voting power in Tesla.

On the other hand, SpaceX shares are classified into a dual-class share structure: Class A and Class B shares. Each Class B share is equivalent to 10 Class A shares in terms of voting rights. Musk holds roughly 85% of the voting rights in the commercial spaceflight giant following its blockbuster IPO earlier this year.

More voting power would help Musk retain more control over the companies, but critics warn that such a decision could undermine shareholders and lead to the “erosion” of shareholder voting rights in the companies.

SpaceX shares declined 2.08% to $148.99 during overnight trading on Wednesday, while TSLA shares also declined 1.05% to $363.31 during the overnight trading session.

Elon Musk Teases Merger

Musk has also fueled speculation about a Tesla-SpaceX combination, saying the companies collaborate deeply across multiple areas.

It’s also worth noting that mergers may not be a new thing for Musk, as SpaceX acquired Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI in February this year. Following its merger, the combined SpaceX-xAI entity was valued at $1.25 trillion.

Prediction Markets Weigh In

Amid the merger talks, bettors on the prediction market platform Kalshi thought there was a 19% chance of the two companies merging, but a 52% chance of a merger occurring before May 2027 and a 71% chance of a merger before 2028.

On the other hand, Polymarket bettors said that there was a 24% chance of the companies merging before the end of December 2026, while there was a 63% chance of a merger before December 31st, 2027.

Disclaimer: Benzinga and Kalshi have an existing data collaboration agreement.

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